Seminar in Empirical Microeconomics - Expectations and Policy Advice of Economic Experts
Time
Thursday, 12. January 2023
12:00 - 13:15
Location
G421
Organizer
Chair of Economic Policy
Speaker:
Klaus Gründler (ifo Institute / LMU Munich)
Expectations and Policy Advice of Economic Experts
Abstract: A large body of literature focusses on economic expectations of households and firms, but little is known about expectation formation of economic experts and how they shape policy recommendations. We study the drivers of expectations of experts using large-scale global survey experiments including more than 1,500 professional economists from 130 countries. Our results uncover important differences in the formation of expectations between economic experts and the general public. We also show that expectations adjust quickly to changes in the state of the world, and that such changes in expectation influences policy recommendations of experts.