Latest Publications
-
(2005): Zur Frage der Verwertbarkeit schulischer Berufsbildung am Beispiel der baden-württembergischen Berufskollegs : Welchen Beitrag leisten didaktische Innovationen? JACOB, Marita, ed. and others. Perspektiven des Berufskonzepts : die Bedeutung des Berufs für Ausbildung und Arbeitsmarkt. Bielefeld: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, 2005, pp. 143-158. Beiträge zur Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung. 297. ISBN 978-3-7639-3985-5
dc.title:
-
Rahmenbedingungen der Personenfreizügigkeit
-
(2005): Virtuelles Seminar zur Fachdidaktik des Rechnungswesenunterrichts : Implementation und erste Erfahrungen SEMBILL, Detlef, ed., Jürgen SEIFRIED, ed.. Rechnungswesenunterricht am Scheideweg: Lehren - Lernen und Prüfen. Wiesbaden: Dt. Univ.-Verl., 2005, pp. 143-162
dc.title:
dc.contributor.author: Wolf, Karsten D.; Städtler, Helge
-
(2005): Euler und Hahn: Wirtschaftsdidaktik : [Rezension] Erziehungswissenschaft und Beruf. 2005, 53(3), pp. 431-433
dc.title:
-
(2005): Emotionale Befindlichkeit in Lehr-Lern-Prozessen in der beruflichen Bildung Zeitschrift für Pädagogik. 2005, 51(5), pp. 656-672
Emotional-motivational factors, which, for a long time, have been neglected, seem to be indispensable to successful learning processes in the domaines of engineering, economy, and society. The importance of emotions, in particular. has not been discussed sufficiently, findings of brain research have not been considered adequately. Emotional processes play a fundamental role in the controlling of cognitive processes of action-regulation. In order to take into account the inseparability of emotional and motivational processes, the authors draw on the construct of emotional states. They discuss the significance of this construct regarding processes of teaching and learning in institutions of vocational education.
-
Bevölkerungsprognosen dienen dem öffentlichen und dem privaten Sektor als Entscheidungsgrundlage. Hierbei ist nicht nur die Gesamtzahl der Einwohner wichtig, sondern auch, wie sich die Bevölkerung zusammensetzt und welche relative Stärke künftige Alterskohorten haben werden. Zwar kann es auf diese Fragen keine eindeutigen Antworten geben; wohl aber bedarf es wissenschaftlich fundierter Prognosen und eine solche Prognose zu wagen ist das Ziel dieser Arbeit.
-
(2005): Modelling financial transaction price movements : A dynamic integer count data model Empirical economics. 2005, 30(4), pp. 795-825. ISSN 0377-7332. Available under: doi: 10.1007/s00181-005-0001-1
In this paper we develop a dynamic model for integer counts to capture fundamental properties of financial prices at the transaction level. Our model relies on an autoregressive multinomial component for the direction of the price change and a dynamic count data component for the size of the price changes. Since the model is capable of capturing a wide range of discrete price movements it is particularly suited for financial markets where the trading intensity is moderate or low. We present the model at work by applying it to transaction data of two shares traded at the NYSE traded over a period of one trading month. We show that the model is well suited to test some theoretical implications of the market microstructure theory on the relationship between price movements and other marks of the trading process. Based on density forecast methods modified for the case of discrete random variables we show that our model is capable to explain large parts of the observed distribution of price changes at the transaction level.
-
This dissertation studies the question of nonlinearities in the Phillips curve relationship in France, Germany and Italy. The implications from the theoretical models are that the mechanisms that make the Phillips curve nonlinear can work through different channels. Therefore, this thesis not just asks whether the Phillips curve is nonlinear but also why it is nonlinear. The results from logistic smooth transition regressions provide evidence for different mechanisms in Germany, compared to France and Italy. However, the results for France and Italy are rather mixed which might be due to the structural change during the mid 1980s.
-
This paper investigates the effects of using dismissal taxes to finance unemployment benefits. We compare dismissal and employment taxes in a model with search frictions. Employment taxes give rise to externalities because firms do not take into account the effects their dismissal decisions have on others. By introducing dismissal taxes to finance unemployment insurance, these externalities can partly be internalized. Taking into account the budget of the unemployment insurance, employment taxes can be reduced by more than necessary to offset the adverse effect of dismissal taxes on the firm value. The introduction of dismissal taxes leads to higher job creation and lower unemployment, in contrast to standard results concerning employment protection.
-
In diesem Beitrag soll ein Überblick über den Handel von Kreditrisiken gegeben werden. Dazu werden die wichtigsten Instrumente vorgestellt ebenso wie die Entwicklung der zugehörigen Märkte. Die Vertragsgestaltung wird insbesondere aus dem Blickwinkel untersucht, negative Effekte von Informationsasymmetrien einzuschränken. Es zeigt sich, dass das Ausmaß der Informationsasymmetrie die Vertragsgestaltung erheblich beeinflusst. Da solche Asymmetrien den Handel von Kreditrisiken tendenziell einschränken, wird der Risikotransfer an einem Praxisbeispiel untersucht.
-
(2005): Drehbanden als innovatives Kommunikationsinstrument in der Sportwerbung BERNDT, Ralph, ed., Salvatore BELARDO, ed., Carl HELBLING, ed., Reinhart SCHMIDT, ed., Albert STÄHLI, ed.. Erfolgsfaktor Innovation. Berlin: Springer, 2005, pp. 197-211. Herausforderungen an das Management : Schriftenreihe der Graduate School of Business Administration Zürich. 12. ISBN 978-3-540-24516-2. Available under: doi: 10.1007/3-540-27291-7_13
dc.title:
-
(2005): Employment protection : its effects on different skill groups and on the incentive to become skilled
Employment protection affects labour market outcomes and hence the incentive to acquire skills. Using a matching model with two education levels in which workers decide ex-ante on their skill formation, it is shown that employment protection can raise the fraction of skilled workers. This will be the case if workers obtain a sufficiently large fraction of the rent created by skill formation. Furthermore, it will be shown that high-skilled workers face shorter unemployment duration and lower dismissal probabilities.
-
(2005): The Potential Outcome of Schooling : Individual Heterogeneity, Program Risk and Residual Wage Inequality Conference ”Heterogenous Labor and Education” DFG Research Group 454. 2005
dc.title:
dc.contributor.author: Flossmann, Anton L.
-
Though currency and debt crises quite often occur simultaneously, the links between these two types of crises are not well understood. We review how currency and debt crises could be related due to (1) common causes, (2) internal contagion effects from one crisis to the other, and (3) complementary budget financing aspects. The relationship between currency and debt crises is illustrated with a small theoretical model. Using panel data for 80 countries over the period 1975-2000, we analyze the relationship between currency and debt crises empirically in two steps. First, we investigate the determinants of each crisis separately. Second, we estimate links between both crises employing instrumental variables techniques. We find that, while there is a negative lagged influence of currency crises on debt crises, the occurrence of a currency crisis significantly increases the risk of a contemporaneous debt crisis and vice versa. Both types of crises are significantly more likely if the debt burden is higher.
-
(2005): Berufsbildungsreform in Australien : „Kompetenzorientierung“ im Zeichen eines „offenen Ausbildungsmarktes“ Berufsbildung : Zeitschrift für Praxis und Theorie in Betrieb und Schule. 2005, 59(93), pp. 44-45. ISSN 0005-9536
dc.title:
-
dc.title:
-
(2005): Modeling strong reciprocity GINTIS, Herbert, ed. and others. Moral sentiments and material interests : the foundations of cooperation in economic life. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2005, pp. 193-214. MIT Press series on economic learning and social evolution. 6. ISBN 0-262-07252-1
dc.title:
dc.contributor.author: Falk, Armin
-
(2005): Recovering Probabilities and Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns LEHMANN, Bruce N., ed.. The Legacy of Fisher Black. Oxford: Univ. Pr., 2005, pp. 125-160. ISBN 0-19-516836-4
This paper summarizes a program of research we have conducted over the past four years. So far, it has produced two published articles, one forthcoming paper, one working paper currently under review at a journal, and three working papers in progress. The research concerns the recovery of market-wide risk-neutral probabilities and risk aversion from option prices.
The work is built on the idea that risk-neutral probabilities (or their related state-contingent prices) are an amalgam of consensus subjective probabilities and consensus risk aversion. The most significant departure of this work is that it reverses the normal direction of previous research, which typically moves from assumptions governing subjective probabilities and risk aversion, to conclusions about risk-neutral probabilities. Our work is partially motivated by the conspicuous failure of the Black-Scholes formula to explain the prices of index options in the post-1987 crash market.
First, we independently estimate risk-neutral probabilities, taking advantage of the now highly liquid index option market. We show that, if the options market is free of general arbitrage opportunities and we can at least initially ignore trading costs, there are quite robust methods for recovering these probabilities.
Second, with these probabilities in hand, we use the method of implied binomial trees to recover a consistent stochastic process followed by the underlying asset price.
Third, we provide an empirical test of implied trees against alternative option pricing models (including "naive trader" approaches) by using them to forecast future option smiles.
Fourth, we argue that realized historical distributions will be a reliable proxy for certain aspects of the true subjective distributions. We then use these observed aspects together with the option-implied risk-neutral probabilities to estimate market-wide risk aversion. -
(2005): Apprenticeship in Germany : modernising the Dual System Education + Training. 2005, 47(4/5), pp. 312-324. ISSN 0040-0912. eISSN 1758-6127. Available under: doi: 10.1108/00400910510601896
Purpose
This paper proposes to investigate the modernisation of the German Dual System for apprenticeships.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper looks at the history of the development of the Dual System and looks at the challenges it faces today.
Findings
The paper finds that Germany, with its long‐standing tradition of dual apprenticeships and the reputation of maintaining its practices rather than changing them, has joined the vocational education and training reform agenda. It also finds that reforms seem inevitable in the face of a partial failure of the traditional mechanisms operating within the existing apprenticeship system.
Originality/value
This paper is useful in highlighting the challenges faced by a traditional apprenticeship system. -
Dieser Beitrag verfolgt zwei Ziele. Erstens fasst er überblicksartig die Debatte um die Schweizer Wachstumsschwäche zusammen. Zweitens, wann immer es die Datenlage zulässt und es einen Erkenntnisgewinn verspricht, konfrontieren wir die Entwicklungen der Schweiz mit denen ihrer Nachbarländer, besonders mit denen in einkommensstarken und kleinen Volkswirtschaften Europas. Auf diese Art beleuchten wir die gängigsten Erklärungen der Schweizer Wachstumsschwäche und konfrontieren sie mit den Daten.