Latest Publications
-
(2008): Forecasting Euro-Area Variables with German Pre-EMU Data Journal of Forecasting. 2008, 27(6), pp. 465-481. Available under: doi: 10.1002/for.1064
It is investigated whether euro area variables can be forecast better based on synthetic time series for the pre-euro period or by using just data from Germany for the pre-euro period. Our forecast comparison is based on quarterly data for the period 1970Q1-2003Q4 for 10 macroeconomic variables. The years 2000-2003 are used as forecasting period. A range of different univariate forecasting methods is applied. Some of them are based on linear autoregressive models and we also use some nonlinear or time-varying coefficient models. It turns out that most variables which have a similar level for Germany and the euro area such as prices can be better predicted based on German data, while aggregated European data are preferable for forecasting variables which need considerable adjustments in their levels when joining German and European Monetary Union (EMU) data. These results suggest that for variables which have a similar level for Germany and the euro area it may be reasonable to consider the German pre-EMU data for studying economic problems in the euro area.
-
dc.title:
dc.contributor.editor: Fabel, Oliver; Demougin, Dominique
-
This dissertation introduces three novel approaches for the econometric evaluation of heterogeneous treatment effects. The proposed methods consider the effects of a binary treatment on different characteristics of the outcome distribution.
Section 1 proposes an estimation method for various average treatment effects using weighted integrals of estimates of marginal treatment effects. Marginal treatment effects measure the effect of a treatment variable on the outcome for individuals who are indifferent between participating or not. By integration of suitable weighted marginal treatment effects, several average treatment effects can be calculated. The general assumptions of the method enable the use of various nonparametric estimators for the weights and the marginal treatment effects.
Section 2 describes a method to estimate quantile treatment effects of a binary treatment variable on censored durations. The effects of interest are differences between quantiles of the counterfactual outcomes in both treatment states. Identification is based on the conditional independence assumption. Estimators for the whole population and for the subgroup of participants are proposed, consistency, asymptotic normality, and consistency of the variance estimators are shown. A simple transformation of the effects is given, which enables an easy interpretation of the results. A test procedure for several hypotheses on the whole quantile treatment effect process is described. Pros and cons of the method compared to other approaches are discussed.
Section 3 describes methods to test for distributional treatment effects under the conditional independence assumption. The differences between latent outcome distributions are judged by testing hypotheses of distributional equality and stochastic dominance. Furthermore, semiparametric efficient versions of the test statistics are given. The latter test statistics are double robust, i.e., they are consistent under misspecification of either the outcome equation or the propensity score. Consistent bootstrap procedures for deriving critical values of all tests are proposed. -
Sindarin is a constructed language invented by the author and linguist J.R.R. Tolkien. It is the language spoken by the Elves. Though the number of complete sindarin sentences is rather limited[1] enough information is available to derive syntactic rules and build a Sindarin grammar. This project aims at modelling the basics of Classi- cal Sindarin grammar in LFG using Xerox XLE system. In addition it interfaces to Xerox XFST to lookup morphological information which has already been implemented in another project. For more information about Classical Sindarin morphology see the project documentation[2]. The project is mainly based on information provided by David Salo’s ”A Gateway to Sindarin”
-
Dieser Beitrag untersucht die treibenden Faktoren bei der Partner Selektion in Venture Capital-Syndikaten anhand von 2400 Transaktionen im Zeitraum 1995 2005 in Deutschland. Um eine bessere Beratungs- und Management-Unterstützung zu gewährleisten, bilden Ressourcen und Fähigkeiten der potentiellen Partner das Kernstück der Analyse zur Partnerwahl durch den einladenden, sog. Lead-Investor. Die Resultate zeigen, dass sich die Investitions-Erfahrung eines potentiellen Partners positiv auf die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Einladung auswirkt. Darüber hinaus betonen die Ergebnisse die Rolle komplementärer Eigenschaften. Einladende Investoren bevorzugen die Zusammenarbeit mit Partnern, die sich in ihrer strategischen Ausrichtung von der eigenen unterscheiden und in dieser Hinsicht die Verbindung von komparativen Stärken zum gemeinsamen Vorteil ermöglichen. Die mögliche Reduzierung von Informationsasymmetrien durch die Einbindung ähnlich ausgerichteter Partner wird somit durch den Mehrwert der qualitativ hochwertigeren Beratungs- und Management-Unterstützung in der Kooperation mit komplementären Partnern aufgewogen.
Insgesamt zeigen die Ergebnisse die Bedeutung von Ressourcen/Fähigkeiten bei der Auswahl geeigneter Partner im Rahmen der Bildung von VC-Syndikaten auf und betonen die Wichtigkeit der Verbindung von komplementären, idiosynkratischen Kompetenzen zur Erzielung langfristiger Wettbewerbsvorteile. -
Student achievement has been identified as an important contributor to economic growth. This paper investigates the hypothesis that redistributive government activities have a negative effect on investment in human capital using data from international comparative student achievement tests in Mathematics and Science for over 70 countries during the period 1980 to 2003. In fixed effects models, the impact on student achievement of both government consumption and government social expenditures are negative and seem to be robust across different model specifications. The effect of social expenditures appears to be driven by spending on pensions and active labor market policies.
-
(2008): Lesben mit Kinderwunsch : eine ethische Herausforderung für die Reproduktionsmedizin? BOCKENHEIMER-LUCIUS, Gisela, ed. and others. Umwege zum eigenen Kind. Göttingen: Universitätsverl, 2008, pp. 217-238
dc.title:
-
Der vorliegende Band der Schriftenreihe der Sektion Berufs- und Wirtschaftspädagogik der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Erziehungswissenschaft (DGfE) bietet einen Querschnitt und Überblick zu zentralen Problemen der aktuellen berufs- und wirtschaftspädagogischen Diskussion. Unter dem Rahmenthema der Modernisierung werden u. a. Beiträge zur internationalen und vergleichenden Berufsbildungsforschung, neueste Forschungsergebnisse zum Status Quo des Dualen Systems und der Lehr-/Lernforschung sowie theoretisch und empirisch fundierte Forschungserträge zu den Themenbereichen "Professionalisierung des Bildungspersonals" und "Benachteiligtenförderung in der beruflichen Bildung" vorgestellt.
-
(2008): Credit And Growth Under Limited Commitment Macroeconomic Dynamics. 2008, 12(Supplement S1), pp. 20-30. Available under: doi: 10.1017/S136510050707006X
We consider a linear growth model with idiosyncratic productivity shocks in which producers cannot commit to repay their loans. Borrowing constraints are determined endogenously by the borrowers incentives to repay, assuming that defaulters lose a share of output and are excluded from future trade in the credit market. We characterize necessary and sufficient conditions for the enforceability of a first-best equilibrium growth path. Weak property rights, impatient producers, and small productivity differentials can make the efficient growth path nonenforceable and lead to an inefficient equilibrium with binding borrowing constraints. For some economies, multiple balanced growth paths coexist.
-
(2008): Benchmarking : [Wörterbuch-Eintrag] HEDTKE, Reinhold, ed. and others. Wörterbuch Ökonomische Bildung. Schwalbach; Taunus: Wochenschauverl, 2008, pp. 60-61
dc.title:
dc.contributor.author: Voss, Rödiger
-
(2008): Precautionary insurance demand with state-dependent background risk The Journal of Risk and Insurance. Wiley-Blackwell. 2008, 75(1), pp. 1-16. ISSN 0022-4367. eISSN 1539-6975. Available under: doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6975.2007.00245.x
This article considers a zero-mean background risk that is uncorrelated with insurable losses, but is not necessarily statistically independent. In particular, the size of the background risk can vary in different insurable-loss states. We show how a prudent individual will buy either more insurance or less insurance than with no background risk, depending on the relative size of the background risk in the loss states vis-á-vis the no-loss states. If we consider two individuals, with one more risk averse than the other, we need to compare the intensities of their precautionary motives, in addition to their measures of risk aversion, before we can determine who buys more insurance coverage in the presence of the state dependent background risk.
-
(2008): Change Management von Schulen : Erfolgsfaktoren und Handlungsstrategien aus Sicht der Schulleitung an beruflichen Schulen VOSS, Rödiger, ed.. Innovatives Schulmanagement. Gernsbach: Deutscher Betriebswirte-Verlag, 2008, pp. 102-124
dc.title:
dc.contributor.author: Meier, Michael
-
In this paper we present a new design which allows us to draw inferences on the distribution of lying behavior among the population. Participants received a dice in order to determine their payoff anonymously. Whatever they reported to have rolled, they received as payoff. 39% of the subjects were honest and maximally 22% of them were lying completely. Interestingly we found subjects who lied but who did not maximize their income by doing so. Using additional experiments, we can show that a compelling explanation for this behavior is the desire to maintain a favorable self-concept, including honesty and non-greediness.
-
(2008): PDAs als Erhebungsinstrument in der beruflichen Lernforschung - ein neues Wundermittel oder bewährter Standard? : eine Replik auf Henning Pätzold Empirische Pädagogik. 2008, 22(1), pp. 64-77
This article refers to a contribution by Henning Pätzold who described the advantages and constraints of pocket pcs as a new method of data-sampling being used in educational research. It accentuates important development stages of experience sampling and summarizes same actual results.
-
(2008): Estimation of Labour Supply Functions Using Panel Data : a Survey MÁTYÁS, László, ed., Patrick SEVESTRE, ed.. The Econometrics of Panel Data: Fundamentals and Recent Developments in Theory and Practice. Heidelberg: Springer, 2008, pp. 761-794
This survey aims at providing the reader with a thread through the literature on the topic of panel econometrics of labour supply, reporting also on the evaluation of the data used in these studies, and summarizing their substantive results. It documents the present trend away from models that take advantage of panel data almost exclusively in order to control for unobserved heterogeneity, towards fully dynamic models where wages become endogenous and consequently the concept of wage elasticity loses much of its appeal.
-
(2008): Die Chancen der Sozialen Marktwirtschaft und die Rolle der Ökonomen Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik. 2008, 9(2), pp. 125-138. ISSN 1465-6493. eISSN 1468-2516. Available under: doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2516.2008.00265.x
It is first shown that the potential of the market mechanism to solve pressing problems of resource allocation is not being used to its full extent, and three examples from the field of social policy are given. Secondly, it is argued that the public often ignores the advice of economists because they do not have a convincing concept of the term "social" in the Social Market Economy. Existing proposals by economists are examined and found wanting. Finally, it is proposed to equate the term social with the goal of equality of opportunity, and again three examples are given in which this goal is insufficiently achieved in Germany.
-
This paper explores a general model of the evolution and adaption of hedonic utility. It is shown that optimal utility will be increasing strongly in regions where choices have to be made often and decision mistakes have a severe impact on fitness. Several applications are suggested. In the context of intertemporal preferences, the model offers an evolutionary explanation for the existence of conflicting short- and long-run interests that lead to dynamic inconsistency. Concerning attitudes towards risk, an evolutionary explanation is given for S-shaped value functions that adjust to the decision-maker s environment.
-
(2008): Estimation of Labour Supply Functions Using Panel Data: A Survey MATYAS, Laszlo, ed.. The econometrics of panel data : fundamentals and recent developments in theory and practice. 3. Berlin: Springer, 2008, pp. 761-794
dc.title:
dc.contributor.author: Koebel, Bertrand; Laisney, Francois; Staat, Matthias
-
dc.title:
dc.contributor.author: Nolte, Sandra
-
(2008): Konzernabschlussprüfung und Überleitung zum Monatsbericht Controlling. 2008, 20(6), pp. 323-328
dc.title:
dc.contributor.author: Rapp, Matthias J.