Seminar in Macroeconomics - Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty
Time
Monday, 30. May 2022
12:00 - 13:15
Location
online
Organizer
Chair of International and Monetary Macroeconomics
Speaker:
Céline Poilly (Aix-Marseille School of Economics)
Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty
joint with Fabien Tripier (University of Dauphine)
Abstract: This paper studies trade policy uncertainty at the regional level. We propose a measure of regional trade policy uncertainty based on the volatility of tariffs at the sectoral level and the intensity of imports in these sectors by the US states. We show that an unanticipated increase in tariff uncertainty leads to a decline in employment and economic activity that affects states differently depending on their import intensity in the affected sectors. Then, we build a regional open economy model to investigate the transmission channels of trade policy uncertainty shocks.