Publikationen

We use detailed administrative data to study the adjustment of local labor markets to industrial robots in Germany. Robot exposure, as predicted by a shift-share variable, is associated with displacement effects in manufacturing, but those are fully offset by new jobs in services. The incidence mostly falls on young workers just entering the labor force. Automation is related to more stable employment within firms for incumbents, and this is driven by workers taking over new tasks in their original plants. Several measures indicate that those new jobs are of higher quality than the previous ones. Young workers also adapt their educational choices, and substitute away from vocational training towards colleges and universities. Finally, industrial robots have benefited workers in occupations with complementary tasks, such as managers or technical scientists.

We study the causal relationship between geographic connectedness and development using one of the earliest massive trade expansions: the first systematic crossing of open seas in the Mediterranean during the time of the Phoenicians. We construct a geography based measure of connectedness along the shores of the sea. We relate connectedness to economic activity, which we measure using the presence of archaeological sites. We find an association between better connected locations and archaeological sites during the Iron Age, at a time when sailors began to cross open water routinely on a big scale. We corroborate these findings at world level.

Im Beitrag wird zunächst auf den Emotionsbegriff sowie auf allgemeine Merkmale von Emotionen eingegangen. Anschließend werden unterschiedliche Möglichkeiten der Emotionsentstehung und -regulation beschrieben, bevor abschließend für eine „Emotions-integrierende“ Lerngesellschaft plädiert wird.

Journal of Economic Behavior & OrganizationWe study the role of information about the multiplier in a finitely repeated investment game. A high multiplier increases the reputational incentives of a trustee, leading to more repayments. Our perfect Bayesian equilibrium analysis shows that if the trustee is privately informed about the multiplier, both the expected frequency of investments and repayments as well as the expected payoffs of both players are higher compared to a situation where the multiplier is public knowledge. We test this result in a laboratory experiment. The data cannot confirm the predicted welfare dominance of private information about the multiplier. We discuss potential reasons for the deviation between theory and experimental data.

dc.title:

dc.contributor.author: Hillman, Arye L.

Inequality of opportunity, particularly when overlaid with socioeconomic, ethnic, or cultural differences, may limit the scope of cooperation between individuals. A central question, then, is how to overcome such obstacles to cooperation. We study this question in the context of Germany, by asking whether the propensity of immigrant youth to cooperate with native peers was affected by a major integration reform: the introduction of birthright citizenship. Our unique setup exploits data from a large-scale lab-in-the-field experiment in a quasi-experimental evaluation framework. We find that the policy caused male, but not female, immigrants to significantly increase their cooperativeness toward natives. We show that the increase in out-group cooperation among immigrant boys is an outcome of more trust rather than a reflection of stronger other-regarding preferences towards natives. In exploring factors that may explain these behavioral effects, we present evidence that the policy also led to a near-closure of the educational achievement gap between young immigrant men and their native peers. Our results highlight that, through integration interventions, governments can modify prosocial behavior in a way that generates higher levels of efficiency in the interaction between social groups.

Ausgehend von einem Rahmenmodell zur Gestaltung technologisch unterstützter adaptiver Lehr- und Lernprozesse werden in unserem konzeptionellen Beitrag Implikationen auf pädagogisch-didaktischer, diagnostischer sowie technologischer Ebene beschrieben. Letzterer Aspekt wird gestützt mit den Ergebnissen einer Sichtung verfügbarer Systeme und deren Funktionen zur Unterstützung der datengestützten Entscheidungsfindung. Bei einer hypothesengeleiteten diagnostischen Vorgehensweise hinsichtlich einer adaptiven Unterrichtsgestaltung erscheint auf pädagogisch-didaktischer Ebene ein erweitertes Verständnis von „Heterogenität“ erforderlich, welches auf diagnostischer sowie technologischer Ebene entsprechend abzubilden ist.

We study the optimal design of student financial aid as a function of parental income. We derive optimal financial aid formulas in a general model. We estimate a model of selection into college for the United States that comprises multidimensional heterogeneity, endogenous parental transfers, dropout, labor supply in college, and uncertain returns. We quantify optimal financial aid in the estimated model and find it is strongly declining in parental income even without distributional concerns. Equity and efficiency go hand in hand.

Do male‐biased labour demand shocks affect women's labour market outcomes? To study this question, we examine large oil field discoveries in the southern USA from 1900 to 1940. We find that oil wealth has an overall positive effect on female labour force participation that is driven by single women. While oil discoveries increase demand for male labour and raise male wages, they do not drive women out of the tradable goods sector or the labour force. Our findings suggest that the absence of any crowding out effects of oil wealth can be explained by compensating forces such as demand effects within the tradable sector, or by income effects that lead to growth in the non‐tradable sector.

Selective attrition out of longitudinal datasets is a concern for empirical researchers. This note illustrates a simple way to identify potential attrition bias in panel surveys by exploiting multiple types of simultaneous entries into a panel survey. The little-known phenomenon of natural refreshments, which adds to entries through refreshments induced by data collectors, allows for attrition bias to be disentangled from measurement errors connected to differences in participation experience (i.e. panel conditioning). A demonstrative application on subjective data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) serves as an example and offers insights on health- and happiness-related attrition in panel surveys.

This paper studies how tax evasion in the self-employment sector affects aggregate outcomes and welfare. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with incomplete markets in which heterogeneous agents choose between being a worker or self-employed. Self-employed agents may misreport their business income but face the risk of being detected by the tax authorities. Our model replicates important quantitative features of the U.S. economy in terms of income, wealth, self-employment, and misreporting. Tax evasion alleviates credit constraints and leads to a larger self-employment sector but reduces the average size and productivity of self-employed businesses. Tax evasion generates positive welfare effects for the self-employed at the expense of the workers.

This article proposes a parsimonious model to forecast large vectors of realized variances (RVar) by exploiting their common dynamics within a latent factor structure. Their long persistence is captured by aggregating latent factors with AR(1) dynamics. The model has obvious advantages over standard autoregressive models not only in terms of parametrization, but also in terms of efficiency, when increasing the dimension of the vector, as it provides more information on the commonality of the series’ dynamics. The model easily accommodates further empirical features of RVars, such as conditional heteroskedasticity. For estimation purposes, we use the maximum likelihood method based on Kalman filter and the efficient method of moments, both being easy to implement and providing accurate estimates. Our empirical illustration on real data shows that the model we propose often outperforms standard models, most of which are, for vectors of RVar series, only implementable under heavy parametric restrictions.

dc.title: