Aktuelle Publikationen
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(2001): Vocational Training in Small Firms in Germany : The Contribution of the Craft Sector Education + Training. 2001, 43(8/9), pp. 426-436. ISSN 0040-0912. eISSN 1758-6127. Available under: doi: 10.1108/00400910110411044
One of the traits which distinguish the German dual system of vocational education and training (VET) from most training systems in the world is the voluntary contribution of companies towards it, in both practical and financial terms. Obviously, the craft sector is a training segment within the dual system where the importance of practical experience is more strongly emphasised than the systematic approach underlying all modern training schemes. However, the overall supply of training placements in the German system decreased during the 1990s. Although the crafts have fared comparatively well, this tendency is now starting to also affect the sector. Being a sector with seemingly less attractive job prospects in small businesses and a comparatively low net cost per apprenticeship, the crafts face problems in terms of social selection as well as challenges with respect to the modernisation of training contents and instruction methods. The crafts are a sector with predominantly male participation and mainly absorb school leavers with lower secondary school qualifications. In this context, one of the questions for the Dual System and its uniform training practices might be whether the rapidly expanding services sector, with similar “small‐business” features, will be able or willing to follow the “training philosophy” that originated in the craft sector – and which is still seen as the “backbone” of the German Dual System of training.
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(2001): Großbritannien, England/Wales HELLWIG, Wolfgang, ed. and others. Innovationen nationaler Berufsbildungssysteme von Argentinien bis Zypern : Berufsbildungsprofile im Blickfeld des Internationalen Fachkräfteaustausches (IFKA). 1. Aufl.. Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2001, pp. 99-102. Internationale Weiterbildung, Austausch, Entwicklung. 11. ISBN 3-7890-7556-6
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The paper proposes a technique for the estimation of possibly nonlinear panel data models in the presence of heterogeneous unit nonresponse. Attrition or unit nonresponse in panel data usually renders parameter estimators inconsistent unless the unavailable infor-mation is missing completely at random. For moment based estimators this problem can be expressed in terms of the impossibility to construct the sample equivalents of the population moments of interest. However, if the attrition process is conditionally mean independent of the variables of interest then the sample equivalents of the population moments can be recov-ered by weighting the moment functions with the conditional response probability (or propen-sity score). The latter is usually unknown and has to be estimated. In the presence of nonre-sponse heterogeneity the propensity score can be estimated by conventional parametric esti-mation methods like the multinomial logit or probit model. The technique proposed in this paper leads to a moment estimator which simultaneously exploits the weighted moment func-tions of interest and the score function of the multinomial choice model. The use of simulated moments is discussed for applications with many nonresponse reasons. An applications of the estimator to firm level data is presented where the variables of interest are R&D investments related to product and process innovations.
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(2001): Entwicklungslinien und aktuelle Trends im Marketing BERNINGHAUS, Siegfried K., ed. and others. Beiträge zur Mikro- und zur Makroökonomik : Festschrift für Hans Jürgen Ramser; mit 24 Tabellen. Berlin [u.a.]: Springer, 2001, pp. 395-407. ISBN 3-540-42308-7. Available under: doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-56606-6_32
Ohne Zweifel hat das Marketing als betriebswirtschaftliche Disziplin in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten sowohl in der Wissenschaft als auch in der Praxis enorm an Bedeutung gewonnen. Einher geht die Entwicklung mit dem Wandel vom Verkäufer- zum Käufermarkt, welcher auf nahezu allen Produktmärkten nachzuvollziehen ist. Entsprechend hat sich das Marketingverständnis seit den 50er Jahren erheblich geändert. 1 Während in den 50er Jahren im Zuge der beginnenden Massenfertigung eine starke Produktionsund Distributionsorientierung vorlag, rückte mit dem Aufkommen von Absatzengpässen in den 60er Jahren der Endkäufer bzw. Konsument stärker in den Mittelpunkt des Interesses. Diese Phase kann als Beginn des instrumentalen Marketing gesehen werden, welches eine systematische Marktbeeinfiussung durch die vier P’s (Product, Price, Promotion, Place) vorsieht. Die darauffolgenden 70er Jahre befaßten sich insbesondere mit Aspekten des vertikalen Marketing und der damit verbundenen Handelsforschung, wohingegen in den 80er Jahren infolge wachsender Rohstoffverknappung, gesättigten Märkten und daraus resultierendem Verdrängungswettbewerb eine verstärkte Konkurrenzorientierung Platz griff. Im Mittelpunkt stand dabei das strategische Marketing, welches Themen wie Marktpositionierung des Unternehmens bzw. seiner Produkte, Identifikation von Quellen für Wettbewerbsvorteile und Möglichkeiten zu deren Absicherung sowie die strategische Programmplanung umfaßt. Gleichzeitig wurden infolge von Internationalisierungs- bzw. Globalisierungsaktivitäten in Unternehmen zunehmend Forschungsaktivitäten im Bereich des internationalen Marketing unternommen. Zu Beginn der 90er Jahre schließlich wurde eine umfassendere, ganzheitliche Betrachtungsweise des Marketing eingeschlagen, indem neben Konkurrenten und Abnehmern verstärkt auch die breite Öffentlichkeit sowie der in der Gesellschaft stattfindende Wertewandel (z.B. verstärkte Freizeit- und Ökologieorientierung) in die Überlegungen mit einbezogen wurden.
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Die Dissertationsarbeit hat zum Ziel, die Gültigkeit der Aussagen eines außenhandelstheoretischen Ansatzes der Neo-Heckscher-Ohlin-Modellklasse in der realen Welt zu überprüfen. Der gewählte Modellierungstyp erlaubt die Koexistenz internationalen intra- und inter-industriellen Handels. Da intra-industrieller Güteraustausch sehr oft als ein ausschließliches Attribut der Handelsbeziehungen zwischen Ländern ähnlichen Standes ihrer wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung betrachtet wird, wurde das zum Hypothesentest herangezogene statistische Datenmaterial bewußt so gewählt, daß von der vorherrschenden Behauptung Abstand genommen werden kann. Anhand von Außenhandelsdaten einer Transformationsökonomie bezüglich der zwischen ihr und Ökonomien unterschiedlichen Ausstattungs- und Technologieprofils verlaufenden Güterströme wird die Gültigkeit der aufgestellten Hypothesen überprüft. Einen wichtigen Schwerpunkt der Betrachtung stellt der bilateral stattfindende Austausch vertikal differenzierter Produkte dar. In dem konkreten Fall dieser Dissertation handelt es sich um Daten über den Außenhandel Bulgariens mit den EU-Mitgliedsländern für den Zeitraum von 1989 bis 1998. Somit stellt die gesamte Arbeit eine Synthese aus einer modelltheoretischen und einer empirischen Komponente dar, die auf der Grundlage einer geeigneten Methodik zusammengeführt werden.
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(2001): Indeterminacy of intertemporal equilibria under imperfect competition Economic Theory. 2001, 17(2), pp. 307-323
It is known that overlapping generations models with imperfectly competitive firms may exhibit a continuum of stationary equilibria. The reason of this indeterminacy is that different price expectation functions of consumers lead to different objective demand functions against which firms maximize. All these expectation functions fulfill perfect foresight in the equilibrium, but they can be arbitrary off the equilibrium. In this paper it is shown that it is not this arbitrariness which is responsible for the indeterminacy, but that the continuum of stationary equilibria emerges even if expectation functions are rational.
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(2000): Kapitaldeckungs- versus Umlageverfahren Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik. 2000, 1(4), pp. 383-405. ISSN 1465-6493. eISSN 1468-2516. Available under: doi: 10.1111/1468-2516.00024
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In an arbitrage free incomplete market we consider the problem of maximizing terminal isoelastic utility. The relationship between the optimal portfolio, the optimal martingale measure in the dual problem and the optimal value function of the problem is described by an BSDE. For a totally unhedgeable price for instantaneous risk, isoelastic utility of terminal wealth can be maximized using a portfolio consisting of the locally risk-free bond and a locally efficient fund only. In a markovian market model we find a non-linear PDE for the logarithm of the value function. From the solution we can construct the optimal portfolio and the solution of the dual problem.
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(2000): Langfristige Folgen eines missglückten Übergangs von der Lehre in den Beruf BÜCHEL, Felix, ed., Martin DIEWALD, ed., Peter KRAUSE, ed., Antje MERTENS, ed., Heike SOLGAR, ed.. Zwischen drinnen und draußen : Arbeitsmarktchancen und soziale Ausgrenzungen in Deutschland. Opladen: Leske und Budrich, 2000, pp. 53-62. ISBN 978-3-8100-2385-8
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dc.contributor.author: Klotz, Stefan; Inkmann, Joachim
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This paper presents structural estimates for a bargaining model which nests
the right-to-manage, the efficient wage bargaining, the seniority and the standard neoclassical labor demand model as special cases. In contrast to most existing models, our
approach accounts for heterogeneous skill groups which differ in terms of productivity
and representation in the bargaining process through union preferences. The paper introduces the concept of 'virtual' firms which allows us to (i) test the efficient contract model against models implying that firms operate on the labor demand curve and to (i) overcome a potential misspecification of firms' output markets.
Estimates of structural parameters are obtained from a novel cross-section of German firms of the business related service sector which includes information on skill-specific wage rates at the firm level. Central results of this paper are that unions do care about both wages and employment in the bargaining process and that firms operate on the
contract curve. The bargaining power of unions in East Germany turns out to be much
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This paper examines the optimal production, export allocation and hedging decisions of a risk-averse international firm that exports to several foreign markets with different currencies. The firm faces multiple exchange rate risks. Optimal decisions are analyzed under two scenarios. In the first, there is a forward market for one currency only. Then, the export allocation to different markets is separable from the firm's preferences and the joint distribution of the exchange rates. In contrast, total production is not separable except for a special case. In the second scenario, there is a forward market for each currency. Then, both production and export allocation are separable. Hedging with forward contracts depends on risk premia and the joint distribution of the exchange rates. If tradable exchange rate risk is a linear function of untradable exchange rate risk plus noise, there is a conflict between cross hedging and taking a basis risk. If, alternatively, the untradable exchange rate risk is a linear function of the tradable exchange rate risk and noise, there is no such conflict. A speculative position in a biased forward market for one currency can be cross hedged using an unbiased forward market for another currency.
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(2000): Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt : eine Regressionsanalyse Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik. 2000, 220(1), pp. 1-17. ISSN 0021-4027
Die Entwicklung der Ausgaben der gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung in Deutschland in den nächsten 40 Jahren soll unter der Prämisse prognostiziert werden, daß die bestehenden Institutionen aufrechterhalten bleiben. Die bisher vorliegenden Ansätze, die auf einer Hochrechnung heutiger altersspezifischer Ausgaben beruhen, weisen systematische Fehler auf. In dieser Arbeit wird der Ausgabenanstieg im Zeitraum 1970-95 mittels einer Regressionsanalyse auf seine Ursachen (Alterung, Einkommenszuwachs, Zeittrend) zurückgeführt. Eine Projektion der Schätzergebnisse bis 2040 ergibt eine Steigerung des GKV-Beitragssatzes auf über 23 %.
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Asset price processes are completely described by information processes and investors´ preferences. In this paper we derive the relationship between the process of investors´ expectations of the terminal stock price and asset prices in a general continuous time pricing kernel framework. To derive the asset price process we make use of the modern technique of forward-backward stochastic differential equations. With this approach it is possible to show the driving factors for stochastic volatility of asset prices and to give theoretical arguments for empirically well documented facts. We show that stylized facts that look at first hand like financial market anomalies may be explained by an information process with stochastic volatility.
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The development of a feasible and flexible model for the intraday transaction process is an ongoing topic in the empirical analysis of market microstructure. This work attempts to modify and extend the models of the transaction process suggested by Rydberg and Shephard (1998) and Russell and Engle (1998). The main contribution is twofold:
First of all, a new and flexible econometric model of the intraday process of price changes is developed. In this work, a classical quantal response model, e.g. a Probit, is augmented by a latent ARMA type dynamic relying on the concept of generalized residuals. This model employs an observation driven dynamic in the sense of Cox (1981). In contrast to competing approaches the model proposed here allows a parsimonious modelling strategy and stationarity conditions of the latent process take a simple form. In addition, this approach allows a straightforward extension to multivariate models. This is of particular importance if one attempts to assess exogeneity or simultaneity relationships among economic variables.
The use of this dynamic quantal response model is not only limited to the analysis of price changes. Lately, quantal response models have become increasingly popular in the analysis of time series, e.g. business cycles, interest rate changes, and credit scores.
The second major contribution of this work is an attempt to disentangle the relationship between the process of price changes and the process of trade intensity. This exploits the fact that the new dynamic quantal response model proofs to be a valuable building block for multivariate models. To allow for enough flexibility, the analysis of the simultaneity between the transaction intensity and direction of price changes and the size of price changes respectively is carried out in separate models. Empirical evidence on this relationship is provided based on a sample of BUND futures trading at the DTB in Frankfurt. -
(2000): Health care reform : Separating insurance from income redistribution International Tax and Public Finance. 2000, 7(4/5), pp. 445-461. ISSN 0927-5940. Available under: doi: 10.1023/A:1008773103834
Most systems of health care financing in EU member states currentlyinclude elements of income redistribution. The paper analyzesthe effects of shifting this kind of redistribution to the taxsystem and argues that this reform could create two types ofefficiency gains. On the expenditure side, it would facilitatethe adoption of more incentive-compatible insurance contracts,for example through the introduction of copayment schemes. Onthe revenue side, income redistribution through the general taxsystem is likely to imply a shadow price of public funds thatis lower than if redistribution is carried out through wage-basedinsurance contributions.
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This paper compares conventional GMM estimators to empirical likelihood based GMM estimators which employ a semiparametric efficient estimate of the unknown distribution function of the data. One-step, two-step and bootstrap empirical likelihood and conventional GMM estimators are considered which are efficient for a given set of moment conditions. The estimators are subject to a Monte Carlo investigation using a specification which exploits sequeantial conditional moment restrictions for binary panel data with multiplicative latent effects. Among other findings the experiments show that the one-step and two-step estimators yield coverage rates of confidence intervals below their nominal coverage probabilities. The bootstrap methods improve upon this result.
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(2000): The German “Philosophy” of Linking Academic and Work-based Learning in Higher Education : The Case of the “Vocational Academies” Journal of Vocational Education and Training. 2000, 52(4), pp. 605-626. ISSN 1363-6820. eISSN 1747-5090. Available under: doi: 10.1080/13636820000200134
In Germany, structures and channels through the education system at first glance appear to be resilient to possible deviations from paths that have always been identified as reliable and more or less successful. One of the examples of a deeply rooted disinclination to reform is the Dual System of initial vocational training, which owes much of its reputation to the fact that it has remained one of the most frequently copied training systems in the world. Although the dualism of ‘learning venues’ may, at first glance, be the striking feature of this ‘German system’ of vocational training there is more to it, especially consensus among the groups involved in the system, the vocational principle as a didactical and structural parameter and also the remarkable contribution to standardisation and quality control from the state. The article depicts what may be seen as the successful transposition of these or similar principles into higher education. The result has been a kind of ‘academic Dual System’ that, despite its growing importance, is till a regional reform project since the emergence of the so-called ‘vocational academies’ (Berufsakademien) has virtually remained restricted to four of the 16 federal states of Germany.
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(2000): Methoden zur Markenprofilierung HERRMANN, Andreas, ed.. Kundenorientierte Produktgestaltung. München: Vahlen, 2000, pp. 333-351. ISBN 978-3-8006-2489-8
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dc.contributor.author: Streich, Michael