Publikationen

We investigate whether risk, time, environmental, and social preferences affect single family homeowners’ investments in energy efficient renovations and energy quality of their house using established experimental measures and questionnaires. We find that homeowners who report to be more risk taking are more likely to have renovated their house. Pro-environmental and futureoriented renovators, i.e. renovators with lower discount factors, live in homes with higher energy efficiency. Controlling for the energy efficiency of houses, we further find that energy consumption as measured by heating and energy costs are lower for future-oriented and proenvironmental individuals. Social preferences measured in a dictator and a generosity game play a mixed role for investments in energy efficiency and energy consumption.

This paper compares the forecasting performance of the unrestricted mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) model to the more commonly used VAR (LF-VAR) model sampled a common low-frequency. The literature so far has successfully documented the forecast gains that can be obtained from using high-frequency variables in forecasting a lower frequency variable in a univariate mixed-frequency setting. These forecast gains are usually attributed to the ability of the mixed-frequency models to nowcast. More recently, Ghysels (2014) provides an approach that allows the usage of mixed-frequency variables in a VAR framework. In this paper we assess the forecasting and nowcasting performance of the MF-VAR of Ghysels (2014), however, we do not impose any restrictions on the parameters of the models. Although the unrestricted version is more flexible, it suffers from parameter proliferation and is therefore only suitable when the difference between the low- and high-frequency variables is small (i.e. quarterly and monthly frequencies). Unlike previous work, our interest is not only limited to evaluating the out-of-sample performance in terms of point forecasts but also density forecasts. Thus, we suggest a parametric bootstrap approach as well as a Bayesian approach to compute density forecasts. Moreover, we show how the nowcasts can be obtained using both direct and iterative forecasting methods. We use both Monte Carlo simulation experiments and an empirical study for the US to compare the forecasting performance of both the MF-VAR model and the LF-VAR model. The results highlight the point and density forecasts gains that can be achieved by the MF-VAR model.

We examine “Forward Guidance Contracts”, which make central bankers’ utility contingent on the precision of interest-rate forecasts for some time. Such Forward Guidance Contracts are a exible commitment device and can improve economic performance when the economy is stuck in a liquidity trap. Utilizing the New Keynesian Framework, we establish the properties of simple renewable Forward Guidance Contracts and characterize the contracts that the government wants to offer repeatedly. These contracts create favorable tradeoffs between the efficacy of forward guidance at the zero bound and the reduced exibility in reacting to future events, when the zero bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central banks’ choice. We discuss how Forward Guidance Contracts can be used when there is uncertainty about natural real interest-rate shocks, a situation which typically calls for moderate incentive intensity. Finally we explore alternative contractual environments.

We provide new evidence on the role of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in aggregate real economic activity in the US using a multiple-horizon Granger causality framework, while allowing for infrequent shifts in mean levels and growth rates of the system variables. Our empirical investigation shows that the predictive ability of EPU for economic activity significantly depends on the presence (or absence) of infrequent structural shifts and the absence from the information set of a forward looking variable such as the stock market level. We do not find economic policy uncertainty effects on industrial production once we control for stock prices irrespective of segmented trends removal. There is some evidence that EPU anticipates employment in the short-run, yet, after re-moving rare events, EPU does not anticipate employment at any horizon. In contrast, the stock market level is found to contain strong predictive direct and indirect information for economic activity that is robust to the presence of infrequent trend breaks.

We employ a life-cycle model with income risk to analyze how tax-deferred individual accounts affect households' savings for retirement. We consider voluntary accounts as opposed to mandatory accounts with minimum contribution rates. We contrast add-on accounts with carve-out accounts that partly replace social security contributions. Quantitative results suggest that making add-on accounts mandatory has adverse welfare effects across income groups. Carve-out accounts generate positive welfare across all income groups but gains are lower for low income earners. Default investment rules in individual accounts have a modest impact on welfare.

We investigate whether risk, time, environmental, and social preferences affect single family homeowners’ investments in energy efficient renovations and energy quality of their house using established experimental measures and questionnaires. We find that homeowners who report to be more risk taking are more likely to have renovated their house. Pro-environmental and future-oriented renovators, i.e. renovators with lower discount factors, live in homes with higher energy efficiency. Controlling for the energy efficiency of houses, we further find that energy consumption as measured by heating and energy costs are lower for future-oriented and pro-environmental individuals. Social preferences measured in a dictator and a generosity game play a mixed role for investments in energy efficiency and energy consumption.

Several RCT studies have shown that prevention of type 2 diabetes is feasible via lifestyle interventions. Nevertheless, the empirical evidence for economic effectiveness of prevention in real-world settings is scarce. We analyze costs and effectiveness of a specific type 2 diabetes prevention program in Finland, the GOAL Lifestyle Implementation Trial (GOAL LIT). We developed a Markov model with five mutually exclusive (disease) states and discrete one-year intervals to simulate the health effects of the intervention over 15 years. Based on the 3-year follow-up results from the intervention and a risk factor matched control group, we computed annual transition probabilities between BMI levels. The mortality differences between intervention and control group after 15 years are insignificant for both sexes. Projected cumulative costs of diabetes for both sexes are significantly lower in the intervention group compared to control group. From the perspective of the health care system the cost saving of the study depends on the assumed degree of complications with type 2 diabetes. For an all-male intervention group, the net benefit is positive above the threshold of 8 per cent average annual complication rate. The average overall monetary gain of the intervention then lies between €213.8 and €354.8 per person. The GOAL LIT would also be cost-effective, if the program was conducted in a representative Finnish population, with possible costs savings following the intervention between €64.8 and €155.8 per person. The results indicate that a diabetes prevention program like the GOAL LIT can be cost effective. Potential cost effects are mainly due to male participants, but nevertheless also notable in a representative population. However, our framework only focuses on one obesity related disease and thus tends to underestimate the cost savings as well as potential mortality benefits.

This paper presents an endogenous growth model that captures the origins of path dependence and technological lock-in and introduces a mechanism of induced innovation, which can trigger new research. Imperfect spillovers of secondary development can make the development of new technologies unattractive until research ceases in the long run. Changes in the relative supply of primary factors act as a stimulus for research as new technologies are better suited for the new environment. A simulation using changes of crude oil prices in the US shows the quantitative significance of the model's implications. The model is able to explain long waves of economic development where growth cycles are triggered by changes in the relative factor supply. It also provides a new rationale for governmental regulations such as Pigouvian taxes and pollution permits as they can stimulate innovation and provide the base for the development of "green" technologies.

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dc.contributor.editor: Eberle, Franz

We conduct an experimental study among European citizens regarding cross-cultural perceptions related to trust in two dimensions: volunteerism and honesty. We use representative samples from five major economies of the Euro area: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain. We find that European citizens rely on nationality to infer behavior. Assessments of behavior show a north/south pattern in which participants from northern countries are perceived to be more honest and to provide more effort in a volunteering game than are participants from southern countries. Actual behavior is, however, not always in line with these assessments. Assessments of honesty show strong evidence of social projection: Participants expect other European citizens to be less honest if they are culturally closer to themselves. Assessments of volunteerism instead show a similar north/south-pattern in which both northern and southern Europeans expect higher performance of northerners than they do of southerners.