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  • The good, the bad and the ugly : analyzing forecasting behavior within a misclassified quantal response framework

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    This paper presents a new approach of analyzing qualitative forecasting errors made by forecasters in tendency surveys. Based on a quantal response approach with misclassification we are able to define qualitative mispredictions of forecasters in terms of deviations from the qualitative rational expectation forecast and relate them to individual and macro factors driving these mispredictions.

    Through the introduction of a dynamic, Markov type misclassification matrix our approach accounts for individual heterogeneity in forecasting behavior. It enables a detailed analysis of individual forecasting decisions allowing for the introduction of individual and economy wide determinants influencing the individual expectation formation process. The model can also be used to test for individual deviations from specific behavioral aspects of expectation formation (adaptive expectations, learning, focalism, etc.) at the macro level.

    The model is estimated by maximum likelihood using a logistic generalized ARMA structure for the misclassification matrix based on the Financial Markets Survey of the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), a monthly qualitative survey of around 330 financial experts, giving six-month-ahead predictions of major macroeconomic aggregates and financial indicators.

  • Friehe, Tim; Baumann, Florian (2010): On the Interaction of Individual and Collective Crime Economics bulletin. 2010, 30(3), pp. 2371-2379. eISSN 1545-2921

    On the Interaction of Individual and Collective Crime

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    This paper shows that increasing the sanction on collective crime may increase its prevalence. This situation arises when individuals can commit crimes both individually and as part of a collective. Our result is based on an interdependence between detection probabilities where detection of an individual crime may result in the uncovering of the collective crime as well.

  • Three Essays on Empirical Labor Economics

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    This dissertation addresses different issues from the field of empirical labor economics and comprises three stand-alone research papers. The thesis is organized as follows: the first two chapters deal with the inclusion of personality traits in labor economic research. In recent years, it has been shown that apart from observable socio-demographic factors, personality traits can contribute considerably to explaining individual behavior on the labor market. The focus is thereby on female labor force participation and on the determinants of job satisfaction. The third chapter investigates misclassification in register data. The analysis of the determinants for job separation with transition to unemployment illustrates the relevance of measurement errors for empirical research.

  • Sander, Matthias; Altobelli, Claudia Fantapié (2010): Impact of virtual advertising in sports events Proceedings of the 9 th International Marketing Trends Conference 2010, Venice, January 21 - 23. 2010

    Impact of virtual advertising in sports events

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    Virtual advertising is a technology that allows digitised superimposition of images (i.e. advertising signage) into a television broadcast. The paper examines the effects of virtual advertising in a sports broadcast setting. We analyse the effects of conspicuousness of virtual advertising and match the results with a media analysis of the sports event. For this purpose, we developed a multiple regression analysis model, with the recall of the advertised brands as a dependent variable. Furthermore, we measure the role of attitude towards advertising in general and its impact on attitude towards virtual advertising and on the recall performance of the respondents. Our results indicate that virtual advertising is highly recognized by the participants. Advertising effectiveness is extremely driven by the frequency of exposure. A positive attitude towards advertising in general leads to a positive attitude towards virtual advertising but has no effect upon the recall performance of the participants.

  • Seifried, Jürgen; Sembill, Detlef (2010): Empirische Erkenntnisse zum handlungsorientierten Lernen in der kaufmännischen Bildung Lernen und lehren : Elektrotechnik - Informatik, Metalltechnik. 2010, 25(98), pp. 61-67

    Empirische Erkenntnisse zum handlungsorientierten Lernen in der kaufmännischen Bildung

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    dc.contributor.author: Sembill, Detlef

  • Globalization and the Composition of Public Education Expenditures : a Dynamic Panel Analysis

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    This paper studies the relationship between globalization and the composition of public education expenditures. The theoretical model is embedded in a median voter setting and is based on the assumption that globalization leads to lower tax revenues as well as an increase in the relative wage of high-skilled workers. Overall, the theoretical discussion suggests that globalization induces a shift from primary to tertiary education expenditures, which is backed up by empirical evidence from dynamic panel estimations for 121 countries over the 1992 - 2006 period. A possible implication of the shift in educational priorities towards higher education is an increase in income inequality

  • Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Neustadt, Ilja (2010): Best-response dynamics in a birth-death model of evolution in games International Game Theory Review. 2010, 12(2), pp. 197-204. Available under: doi: 10.1142/S021919891000260X

    Best-response dynamics in a birth-death model of evolution in games

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    We consider a model of evolution with mutations as in Kandori et al. (1993) [Kandori, M., Mailath, G.J., Rob, R., 1993. Learning, mutation, and long run equilibria in games. Econometrica 61, 29 56], where agents follow best-response decision rules as in Sandholm (1998) [Sandholm, W., 1998. Simple and clever decision rules for a model of evolution. Economics Letters 61, 165 170]. Contrary to those papers, our model gives rise to a birth-death process, which allows explicit computation of the long-run probabilities of equilibria for given values of the mutation rate and the population size. We use this fact to provide a direct proof of the stochastic stability of risk-dominant equilibria as the mutation rate tends to zero, and illustrate the outcomes of the dynamics for positive mutation rates.

  • Gift exchange in the lab : it is not (only) how much you give ...

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    An important aspect in determining the effectiveness of gift exchange relations in labor markets is the ability of the worker to “repay the gift” to the employer. To test this hypothesis, we conduct a real effort laboratory experiment where we vary the wage and the effect of the worker’s effort on the manager’s payoff. Furthermore we collect additional information that allows us to control for the workers’ ability and whether they can be classified as reciprocal or not. From our agency model of reciprocal motivation we derive non-trivial predictions about which is the marginal worker (in terms of ability) affected by our experimental variation and how different types of individuals, selfish and reciprocal, will react to it. Our model does substantially better than other theories in organizing the data.

  • The B-Class goes to China : a case study on product entry strategy and product positioning

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  • How Risky is the Value at Risk?

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    The recent financial crisis has raised numerous questions about the accuracy of value-at-risk (VaR) as a tool to quantify extreme losses. In this paper we present empirical evidence from assessing the out-of-sample performance and robustness of VaR before and during the recent financial crisis with respect to the choice of sampling window, return distributional assumptions and stochastic properties of the underlying financial assets. Moreover we develop a new data driven approach that is based on the principle of optimal combination and that provides robust and precise VaR forecasts for periods when they are needed most, such as the recent financial crisis.

  • Rezension zu Claus Mathes: Wirtschaft unterrichten - Methoden und Didaktik der Wirtschaftslehre

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  • Schindler, Dirk (2010): Tuition Fees and the Dual Inocme Tax : The Optimality of the Nordic Income Tax System Reconsidered German Economic Review. 2010, 12(1), pp. 59-84. ISSN 1465-6485. Available under: doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0475.2010.00504.x

    Tuition Fees and the Dual Inocme Tax : The Optimality of the Nordic Income Tax System Reconsidered

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    We examine the optimal tax and education policy in the case of a dual income tax. Incorporating an educational sector and endogenous capital taxation, we show that the results in Nielsen and Sørensen's study are vulnerable with respect to assumptions on the elasticity of unskilled labor supply. Tax progressivity results residually, whereas educational policy guarantees an optimal tax wedge on, but not necessarily efficiency in, educational investment. The less elastic are the unobservable educational investment and skilled labor (the latter relative to unskilled labor supply), and the more educational policy cares about the skilled labor supply, the more progressive the tax system will be. Education will be subsidized on a net basis if the complementarity effect on the skilled labor supply is strong and important; however, there is also an offsetting substitutability effect of the unskilled labor supply at play.

  • Intentions, Cheap Talk and Punishment : Three Experimental Studies

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    Offerman (2002)). Intentionen sind also noch kein klar bestimmtes Konzept. Was genau bedeuten Intentionen? Welche Rolle spielen Intentionen bei sozialen Interaktionen? Und wie weisen Menschen anderen Absichtlichkeit zu? Gerade die letzte Frage beschäftigt auch die Philosophen. Die Fragebogenstudien des Experimenalphilosophen Joshua Knobe (2003) zeigen, dass Menschen anderen für absehbare negative Externalitäten Absichtlichkeit unterstellen. Für absehbare positive Externalitäten tun sie dies jedoch nicht. Das erste Kapitel dieser Dissertation befasst sich mit der Robustheit dieses Verhaltens. Mehrere ökonomische Modelle weisen Intentionen eine besondere Rolle zu, modellieren Intentionen jedoch unterschiedlich. In dem Modell von Levine (1998) wird Absichtlichkeit durch den Typ des Spielers gemessen. Menschen, die dem Erfolg anderer Menschen einen positiven Wert beimessen, werden als absichtlich nett betrachtet. Hingegen werden Menschen, die dem Erfolg anderer Menschen einen negativen Wert beimessen, als absichtlich unfreundlich betrachtet. Rabin (1993), Dufwenberg and Kirchsteiger (2004) und Falk and Fischbacher (2006) verfolgen einen anderen Ansatz: Hier wird absichtliche Unfreundlichkeit davon abgeleitet, welche Wahl getroffen wurde und welche Wahlmöglichkeiten überhaupt zur Verfügung standen. Nach Vergehen mit uneindeutiger Absichtlichkeit ist diese Ableitung jedoch schwierig. Hier kann ein Signal des Übeltäters helfen, einzuschätzen, ob er absichtlich oder unabsichtlich unfreundlich war. Kapitel 2 und 3 der vorliegenden Dissertation untersuchen, ob cheap talk wie Entschuldigungen oder Beichten so ein Signal sein können und ob sie Strafe für das Vergehen vermeiden können.

  • Lukas, Christian; Schöndube, Jens Robert (2010): Trust and adaptive learning in implicit contracts Review of Managerial Science. 2010, 6(1), pp. 1-32. ISSN 1863-6683. Available under: doi: 10.1007/s11846-010-0045-2

    Trust and adaptive learning in implicit contracts

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    Trust is a phenomenon that still is quite rarely investigated in agency theory. According to a common intuitive reasoning, trust should develop over time and it should evolve even in finite implicit-contract relationships. However, if the contracting parties are fully rational, theory cannot explain this. We therefore extend the standard model and develop a model of a finite relationship where the principal promises to pay a voluntary period-by-period bonus if the agent has worked according to the implicit agreement. The agent is boundedly rational and unable to foresee the principal’s future bonus decisions. The principal is, with some probability, honest and pays a promised bonus even in situations where ex-post cheating would be optimal. Based on the agent’s adaptive learning process, we show how trust evolves depending on the principal’s bonus-payment strategy. Depending on different levels of the agent’s bounded rationality, we derive the principal’s optimal pure strategy as part of a unique equilibrium. In an extension we show that the results are robust if the agent has bounded recall. The optimal strategy pattern mirrors a subset of trigger strategies which is exogenous in the standard model. Our findings imply that subjective incentives are more effective with increasing tenureof employees, or, that the optimal level of trust depends on how fast work environments change.

  • Krieger, Tim; Lange, Thomas (2010): Education policy and tax competition with imperfect student and labor mobility International Tax and Public Finance. 2010, 17(6), pp. 587-606. ISSN 0927-5940. Available under: doi: 10.1007/s10797-010-9129-9

    Education policy and tax competition with imperfect student and labor mobility

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    This paper analyzes the effect of increasing human-capital mobility — i.e. student and labor mobility—on net tax revenues when revenue-maximizing governments compete for human capital by means of income tax rates and amenities offered to students (positive expenditure) or rather tuition fees (negative expenditure). An increase in labor mobility implies neither an intensified tax competition nor an erosion of revenues. In fact, the equilibrium tax rate even increases in labor mobility. Amenities offered to students are non-monotonically related to labor mobility; overall, net revenues increase with labor mobility. An increase in student mobility, however, erodes revenues, mainly due to intensified tax competition. A concurrent cutback in expenditures mitigates this erosion but cannot fully prevent it.

  • Temporary Layoffs with Incomplete Worker Attachment in Search Equilibrium

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    This paper revisits the no-attachment assumption in job search models with random productivity fluctuations and Nash-bargaining. Both workers and firms value the option to remain in attachment: firms profit from a reduced hiring cost, while workers gain from a higher reservation wage when bargaining with a new employer. Ex-post differentiation of workers into attached and unattached unemployed produces endogenous binary wage dispersion. The decentralized equilibrium with a Hosios value of the bargaining power is no longer constrained efficient: when changing attachment workers impose a negative externality on their former employer originating from a loss of the recall option. This inefficiency tends to produce excessive job creation. The paper also investigates returns to job mobility in Germany and shows that being recalled to the previous employer as opposed to the new job is associated with about 8% lower probability of wage improvement.

  • Glaser, Markus; Müller, Sebastian (2010): Is the diversification discount caused by the book value bias of debt? Journal of Banking & Finance. 2010, 34(10), pp. 2307-2317. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2010.02.017

    Is the diversification discount caused by the book value bias of debt?

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    We analyze whether the diversification discount is driven by the book value bias of corporate debt. Book values of debt may be a more downward biased proxy of the market value of debt for diversified firms, relative to undiversified firms, as diversification leads to lower firm risk. Thus, measures of firm value based on book values of debt undervalue diversified firms relative to focused firms. Our paper complements recent literature which uses market values to test the risk reduction hypothesis for a subsample of firms for which debt is traded. Alternatively, we employ market value of debt estimates for the whole firm universe. Consistent with the above hypothesis, we show that the use of book values of debt underestimates the value of diversified firms. There is no discount for mainly equity financed firms and lower distress risk and equity volatility for diversified firms. More concentrated ownership increases firm valuation.

  • Englmaier, Florian; Wambach, Achim (2010): Optimal incentive contracts under inequity aversion Games and Economic Behavior. 2010, 69(2), pp. 312-328. ISSN 0899-8256. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.geb.2009.12.007

    Optimal incentive contracts under inequity aversion

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    We analyze the classic moral hazard problem with the additional assumption that agents are inequity averse. The presence of inequity aversion alters the structure of optimal contracts. When the concern for equity becomes more important, there is convergence towards linear sharing rules. The sufficient statistics result is violated. Depending on the environment, contracts may be either overdetermined, i.e. include non-informative performance measures, or incomplete, i.e. neglect informative performance measures. Finally, our model delivers a simple rationale for team based incentives, implying wage compression.

  • Seifried, Jürgen; Wuttke, Eveline (2010): Unterrichtliche Kommunikation in schülerzentrierten Lehr-Lern-Arrangements NICKOLAUS, Reinhold, ed. and others. Handbuch Berufs- und Wirtschaftspädagogik. Bad Heilbrunn: Klinkhardt, 2010, pp. 118-121. UTB. 8442 : Pädagogik. ISBN 978-3-7815-1756-1

    Unterrichtliche Kommunikation in schülerzentrierten Lehr-Lern-Arrangements

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    dc.contributor.author: Wuttke, Eveline

  • Berndt, Ralph; Fantapié Altobelli, Claudia; Sander, Matthias (2010): Internationales Marketing-Management

    Internationales Marketing-Management

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    dc.contributor.author: Berndt, Ralph; Fantapié Altobelli, Claudia

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