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  • Aging and Health Care Expenditures: A Non-Parametric Approach

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    One of the most important controversies in health economics concerns the question whether the imminent aging of the population in most OECD countries will place an additional burden on the tax payers who finance public health care systems. Proponents of the “red-herring hypothesis” argue that this is not the case because most of the correlation of age and health care expenditures (HCE) is due to the fact that the mortality rate rises with age and HCE rise steeply in the last years before death. The evidence regarding this hypothesis is, however, mixed. Our contribution to this debate is mainly methodological: We argue that the relationship of age, time to death (TTD) and HCE should be estimated non-parametrically. Using a large panel data set from the German Statutory Health Insurance, we first show that the parametric approach overestimates the expenditures of the high age classes and thus overstates the increase of future HCE due to aging. Secondly, we show that the non-parametric approach is particularly useful to answer the question whether age still has an impact on HCE once TTD is taken into account and find that it is clearly the case. This relationship is even more pronounced for long-term care expenditures (LTCE). We then show that the age-expenditure relationship is not stable over time: for many age classes, HCE in the last year of life grow considerably faster than HCE of survivors. We explore the impact of these findings on the simulation of future HCE and find that population aging will in fact contribute to rising HCE in the coming decades. We also find that the impact of different population projections provided by the statistical offices has a greater impact on these simulations than previously acknowledged. However, the total impact of demographics on future HCE and LTCE is dwarfed by the exogenous time trend, which is due to medical progress and increasing generosity of public LTC insurance.

  • Three Essays in Quantitative Macroeconomics

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    This thesis presents three essays in the field of empirical and quantitative macroeconomics. The essays focus on the macroeconomic consequences of credit-market imperfections. The first chapter is about the dynamics of the sovereign credit, while the rest two chapters are on the corporate/business credit. In terms of methodologies, panel-data approaches are applied in both Chapter 1 and Chapter 2. Structural quantitative methods, on the other hand, are used in Chapter 1 and Chapter 3.

    In Chapter 1, which is joint work with Almuth Scholl, we study the dynamic interaction between sovereign default risk, taxation, and the underground economy. The study is motivated by the observation that in the wake of sovereign debt crises, many countries have adopted fiscal consolidation policies in order to reduce public debt and to restore creditworthiness. However, particularly in crisis-prone countries, substantial underground activities undermine tax enforcement. We first conduct an empirical analysis. For a large sample of countries, we find that the size of the underground economy is positively correlated with sovereign debt and interest spreads. We rationalize these empirical regularities within a quantitative model of sovereign default that explicitly accounts for underground activities. We study optimal fiscal policy in the presence of limited tax enforcement and default risk using the concept of Markov-perfect equilibria, in which the government moves first and the households form expectations about future public policies. In a quantitative exercise, we analyze the properties of optimal public policies and the private sector's responses and study the dynamics of a default event with particular focus on the underground sector. Our simulation results reveal that the theoretical framework replicates the empirical regularities very well. In particular, our model predicts that the size of the underground economy is positively correlated with sovereign debt and interest spreads. We show that during a debt crises, the dynamic interaction between sovereign default risk and the underground economy creates a vicious circle: Higher sovereign risk premia tighten the endogenous borrowing constraint and force the government to raise taxes. Tax hikes, however, induce the private sector to invest less and to evade taxes by producing in the underground sector. In turn, falling tax revenues force the government to either implement further tax hikes or to default. Eventually, rasing taxes becomes too costly and the government finds it optimal to default Our quantitative findings suggest that the underground economy fosters sovereign default risk and deepens debt crises.

    In the second chapter, we ask the following question: Has the financial sector become more efficient over time? It is natural to believe that the financial efficiency has improved, at least in an advanced economy such as the United States. However, some authors, such as Philippon (2015) and Bazot (2018), show that it might not be the case. This chapter revisits the estimation of financial efficiency. In this chapter, we propose a regression method to assess the time trend in the firm's intermediation cost of external credit. We define the intermediation cost as the part of the unit cost of the external credit finance that is unrelated to the risk premium. We find that the intermediation cost has decreased significantly over the period of 1983Q1-2007Q4, which has substantially reduced firm's borrowing cost. On average, the fall in the intermediation cost leads to a reduction by 0.57-0.71 percentage point in the ratio of interest expense over revenue, and a decrease by 0.78-0.79 percentage point in the ratio of interest expense over book value of debt. The estimation results are robust against different sample components and against alternative measures of the risk-free rate and inflation. The reduction in the intermediation cost implies that the financial efficiency has improved in the US corporate credit market. We also assess the cross-sectional average risk premium and unit cost over the same period of time, but find mixed results.

    Chapter 3 is motivated by the empirical evidence in Chapter 2, and explores the macroeconomic implications of such decrease in the intermediation cost. The chapter is motivated by the fact that over the past decades, there has been a dramatic credit boom in the United States, coupled with decreasing asset returns and rising inequality. It analyzes whether the decreasing intermediation cost of borrowing is an explanation for these developments. We first construct a simple two-period model, followed by a fully dynamic model based on Angeletos (2007), which we apply to the United States in a quantitative exercise. We find that the macroeconomic effects of the fall in intermediation costs are amplified by two feedback loops: one is between the capital market and the credit market, and another is between the capital-credit market and the wealth distribution. We show that, due to lower intermediation costs, the credit market experiences a "simultaneous" expansion of credit demand and credit supply. As a result, the real risk-free interest rate barely changes. The capital market also expands, leading to a decrease in the returns on capital. The feedback loops exaggerate the capital-income risk and increase the average returns on investment among leveraged investors, driving up the overall wealth and income inequality. In a quantitative exercise, we find that much of the rise in the top-end wealth inequality during 1980-2007 could be explained by the reduction in the intermediation costs. In terms of welfare, we find that the welfare decreases for the households in the bottom-90% wealth group, while it improves for households in other groups.

  • Do more transparent eligibility rules improve public program targeting? : Evidence from India’s old-age social pension reform

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    Public program targeting is particularly challenging in developing countries. Transparency in eligibility rules for the implementation of social programs could be an effective measure to reduce mistargeting. While prior studies have examined the relevance of transparent delivery mechanisms, we focus on the clarity and verifiability of eligibility criteria. India's social pension reforms in the late 2000s provide the opportunity to examine the effect of a change in these criteria within and across states. Using two rounds of the India Human Development Survey along with extensive administrative information collected for the different states, we test whether increasing the transparency of eligibility criteria reduces the mistargeting of social pensions. We thereby allow for a tolerance band, and account for changes in social pension coverage. Our results confirm the expected relationship between the transparency of eligibility criteria and targeting performance and are robust to different specifications of the transparency measure and various robustness checks. Since eligibility criteria can be changed at low cost, this suggests a viable route for reform in many developing countries.

  • Downsizing of fast moving consumer goods : perception & reaction of consumers

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  • Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus; Wey, Christian (2020): Multi-product bargaining, bundling, and buyer power Economics Letters. Elsevier. 2020, 188, 108936. ISSN 0165-1765. eISSN 1873-7374. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108936

    Multi-product bargaining, bundling, and buyer power

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    We re-consider the bilateral bargaining problem of a multi-product, manufacturer–retailer trading relationship. O’Brien and Shaffer (2005) have shown that the unbundling of contracts leads to downward distorted production levels if seller power is strong, while otherwise the joint profit maximizing quantities are contracted (which is also always the case when bundling contracts are feasible). We show that the unbundling of contracts also leads to downward distorted output levels when the buyer firm has sufficient (Nash) bargaining power (i.e., buyer power). Our result is driven by cost substitutability (diseconomies of scope).

  • Imboden, Serge; Schumann, Stephan; Conrad, Matthias (2020): Leitungshandeln an beruflichen Schulen Zeitschrift für Pädagogik. Beltz Juventa. 2020, 66(5), pp. 699-726. ISSN 0044-3247. Available under: doi: 10.3262/ZP2005699

    Leitungshandeln an beruflichen Schulen

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    Die vorliegende Studie verfolgt zwei grundlegende Ziele: erstens eine systematische Erfassung zentraler Bereiche des Schulleitungshandelns an beruflichen Schulen in der Schweiz und zweitens die empirische Überprüfung der Wirksamkeit eines einjährigen Trainingsprogramms zur Förderung relevanter Führungskompetenzen von Schulleitenden. Das hierfür entwickelte Training umfasste eine Serie von Führungskräfte-Workshops mit kombinierten Coachings. Auf Basis einer quasi-experimentellen Untersuchung mit Experimental- und Kontrollgruppe wurde die Wirksamkeit der Intervention mehrperspektivisch untersucht. Die Ergebnisse der Studie machen deutlich, dass an den 29 betrachteten Schulen die transformationale Führung der dominierende Führungsstil der Schulleitenden darstellt. Darüber hinaus zeigt sich, dass die Lehrpersonen (N = 607) das Leitungshandeln der Schulleitenden im Mittel weniger positiv bewerten als dies die Mitglieder der Schulleitung (N = 101) tun. Aus Sicht der Schulleitenden lassen sich vereinzelte positive Effekte auf das Leitungshandeln identifizieren, welche auf das Trainingsprogramm zurückgeführt werden können.

  • Jackwerth, Jens (2020): What Do Index Options Teach Us About COVID-19? The Review of Asset Pricing Studies. Oxford University Press. 2020, 10(4), pp. 618-634. ISSN 2045-9920. eISSN 2045-9939. Available under: doi: 10.1093/rapstu/raaa012

    What Do Index Options Teach Us About COVID-19?

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    Risk-neutral distributions of the S&P 500 are informative about the COVID-19 pandemic beyond what one can learn from index values and the market fear gauge of the VIX alone. We learn that, on February 20, 2020, the index did not yet reflect the impending crisis. Only on March 16, 2020, was the full impact visible, with a pronounced bimodality for longer-maturity options revealing a sizeable crash scenario. The corresponding physical distribution is more symmetric and features a high-volatility crash scenario. Firms bought crash protection ahead of the index crash, whereas retail customers bought it as the index was already recovering.

  • Schwerdt, Guido; Woessmann, Ludger (2020): Empirical methods in the economics of education BRADLEY, Steve, ed., Colin GREEN, ed.. The Economics of Education : a Comprehensive Overview. 2. Auflage. London: Elsevier, 2020, pp. 3-20. ISBN 978-0-12-815391-8. Available under: doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-815391-8.00001-X

    Empirical methods in the economics of education

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    Empirical research in the economics of education often addresses causal questions. Does an educational policy or practice cause students' test scores to improve? Does more schooling lead to higher earnings? This article surveys the methods that economists have increasingly used over the past two decades to distinguish accidental association from causation. The methods include research designs that exploit explicit randomization as well as quasi-experimental identification strategies based on observational data. All methods are illustrated with a range of selected example applications from the economics of education.

  • Three Essays on Regularization Methods in High-Dimensional Factor Models

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  • Heterogeneity of Social Norms

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  • Harder, Andreas; Imboden, Serge; Glassey-Previdoli, Deborah; Schumann, Stephan (2020): Schulleitungshandeln in Zeiten der digitalen Transformation : „Business as usual“ oder „Alles ist neu“? HEINRICHS, Karin, ed., Kristina KÖGLER, ed., Christin SIEGFRIED, ed.. Berufliches Lehren und Lernen : Grundlagen, Schwerpunkte und Impulse wirt­schaft­späda­go­gi­scher Forschung : Profil 6: Digitale Festschrift für Eveline Wuttke zum 60. Geburtstag. Hamburg: Universität Hamburg, Institut für Berufs- und Wirtschaftspädagogik, 2020. Berufs- und Wirtschaftspädagogik online (bwp@). Profil 6

    Schulleitungshandeln in Zeiten der digitalen Transformation : „Business as usual“ oder „Alles ist neu“?

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    Die erfolgreiche Bewältigung der Anforderungen des digitalen Wandels bedingt in den Schulen um­fangreiche Schulentwicklungsprozesse. Bei der Initiierung und Umsetzung dieser Prozesse kommt der Schulleitung eine zentrale Bedeutung zu. Das kooperative Projekt „Digitaler Wandel in der Berufsbil­dung und die Rolle der Schulleitung“ setzt an dieser Stelle an: Es untersucht erstens den „digitalen IST-Zustand“ beruflicher Schulen in der Schweiz und zweitens den Einfluss des Schulleitungshandelns auf den digitalen Wandel der Schule. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird insbesondere darauf eingegangen, ob die Schulleitungen diesen Wandel als „normalen“ Schulentwicklungsprozess wahrnehmen oder ob sich dieser hiervon unterscheidet. Zu diesem Zweck wurde eine umfassende Online-Befragung in der ge­samten Schweiz im Zeitraum von November 2019 bis Januar 2020 durchgeführt. Insgesamt haben n = 630 Schulleitungsmitglieder aus n = 177 beruflichen Schulen aus 23 der 26 Kantone der Schweiz und dabei allen vier Sprachregionen an der Studie teilgenommen. Erste deskriptive Befunde zeigen, dass dem digitalen Wandel grundsätzlich eine (sehr) hohe Priorität (61%) beigemessen wird. Vom Großteil der Probanden wird der allgemeine Entwicklungsstand ihrer Schule hinsichtlich des digitalen Wandels als (eher) fortgeschritten eingestuft (68%), nur 27% bezeich­nen den Stand als wenig/nicht fortgeschritten. Zugleich berichten die Befragten, dass sich der digitale Wandel im Hinblick auf die benötigten finanziellen Ressourcen, die (erwartete) Geschwindigkeit sowie bzgl. der Komplexität von anderen Schulentwicklungsprozessen unterscheidet.

  • Berndt, Ralph; Fantapié Altobelli, Claudia; Sander, Matthias (2020): Internationales Marketingmanagement

    Internationales Marketingmanagement

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    dc.contributor.author: Berndt, Ralph; Fantapié Altobelli, Claudia

  • Hahn, Volker; Marencak, Michal (2020): Price points and price dynamics Journal of Monetary Economics. Elsevier. 2020, 115, pp. 127-144. ISSN 0304-3932. eISSN 1873-1295. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.05.007

    Price points and price dynamics

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    A standard model of price-setting is extended to include an important role for price points as well as sticky information. It makes empirically reasonable predictions about the frequency of price adjustments, the sizes of price increases and decreases, the shape of the hazard function, the fraction of price changes that are price increases, and the relationship between price changes and inflation. When the model of price-setting is integrated into a small-scale DSGE model, it implies plausible aggregate effects of monetary policy in contrast to a model with a prominent role for price points but no information rigidities.

  • Spika, Simon B.; Zweifel, Peter (2019): Buying efficiency: optimal hospital payment in the presence of double upcoding Health economics review. 2019, 9(1), 38. eISSN 2191-1991. Available under: doi: 10.1186/s13561-019-0256-4

    Buying efficiency: optimal hospital payment in the presence of double upcoding

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    Background:
    With DRG payments, hospitals can game the system by 'upcoding' true patient's severity of illness. This paper takes into account that upcoding can be performed by the chief physician and hospital management, with the extent of the distortion depending on hospital's internal decision-making process. The internal decision making can be of the principal-agent type with the management as the principal and the chief physician as the agent, but the chief physicians may be able to engage in negotiations with management resulting in a bargaining solution.

    Results:
    In case of the principal-agent mechanism, the distortion due to upcoding is shown to accumulate, whereas in the bargaining case it is avoided at the level of the chief physician.

    Conclusion:
    In the presence of upcoding it may be appropriate for the sponsor to design a payment system that fosters bargaining to avoid additional distortions even if this requires extra funding.

  • Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker; Liu, Yulin (2019): Forward guidance contracts Macroeconomic Dynamics. 2019, 23(8), pp. 3386-3423. ISSN 1365-1005. eISSN 1469-8056. Available under: doi: 10.1017/S1365100518000093

    Forward guidance contracts

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    We examine “Forward Guidance Contracts,” which penalize central bankers for choosing high interest rates. We integrate those contracts into the New Keynesian Framework and show that they can be used to overcome a liquidity trap. Moreover, although the government takes only a share of the social benefits into account when it has to decide whether to offer the contract, we demonstrate that for plausible parameter values the government will always find it desirable to offer the contract in a liquidity trap but not in normal times. Finally, we show that the optimal duration of such contracts is typically very short.

  • Gavriushina, Iuliia; Sampson, Oliver R.; Berthold, Michael R.; Pohlmeier, Winfried; Borgelt, Christian (2019): Widened Learning of Index Tracking Portfolios 18th IEEE International Conference On Machine Learning And Applications (ICMLA). Piscataway: IEEE, 2019, pp. 1800-1805. ISBN 978-1-72814-551-8. Available under: doi: 10.1109/ICMLA.2019.00291

    Widened Learning of Index Tracking Portfolios

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    Index investing has an advantage over active investment strategies, because less frequent trading results in lower expenses, yielding higher long-term returns. Index tracking is a popular investment strategy that attempts to find a portfolio replicating the performance of a collection of investment vehicles. This paper considers index tracking from the perspective of solution space exploration. Three search space heuristics in combination with three portfolio tracking error methods are compared in order to select a tracking portfolio with returns that mimic a benchmark index. Experimental results conducted on real-world datasets show that Widening, a metaheuristic using diverse parallel search paths, finds superior solutions than those found by the reference heuristics. Presented here are the first results using Widening on time-series data.

  • Maurer, Stephan E. (2019): Oil discoveries and education provision in the Postbellum South Economics of Education Review. 2019, 73, 101925. ISSN 0272-7757. eISSN 1873-7382. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2019.101925

    Oil discoveries and education provision in the Postbellum South

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    This paper studies the effect of oil wealth on the provision of education in the early 20th century United States. Using information on the location and discovery of major oil fields, I find that oil wealth increased local revenue and education spending. However, population increased, and as consequence, schooling quality did not improve across the board. Nominal teacher wages increased, and oil-rich counties were more likely to participate in the Rosenwald school building program for blacks. However, neither student-teacher ratios nor school attendance rates improved in the wake of oil discoveries.

  • Jüttler, Michael; Schumann, Stephan (2019): Is economics a man's business? : Exploring the long-term effects of the gender gap in economic competencies at the upper secondary level on students' choice to study economics at university Citizenship, Social and Economics Education. 2019, 18(3), pp. 177-197. ISSN 1357-4019. eISSN 2047-1734. Available under: doi: 10.1177/2047173419885628

    Is economics a man's business? : Exploring the long-term effects of the gender gap in economic competencies at the upper secondary level on students' choice to study economics at university

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    In higher education, across countries, a large share of students choose to study economics. Although there is only a small difference in the share of female and male students in that field, there is robust empirical evidence of a gender gap in economic competencies, showing that male students in most cases outperform female students. There is a broad discussion about the differences in gender-specific socializations that cause this gender gap. However, no research exists on the long-term effects of this gender gap. This study uses longitudinal and representative data of N = 1397 Swiss students (824 female students) to analyse the gender-specific effects of economic competencies at the end of the upper secondary level on their aspiration and decision to study economics. The results show that economic knowledge and interest in economics have a substantially stronger effect on the choice of economics for female students. The aspiration to study strongly mediates these effects. We argue that these results can mainly be traced back to different interests and self-perceptions of skills and abilities in economics caused by gender-specific socialization. Possible implications of gender socialization and discrimination in economics for secondary and higher education and for the labour market are discussed.

  • Gantenbein, Pascal; Kind, Axel; Volonté, Christophe (2019): Individualism and Venture Capital : A Cross-Country Study Management International Review. 2019, 59(5), pp. 741-777. ISSN 0938-8249. eISSN 1861-8901. Available under: doi: 10.1007/s11575-019-00394-7

    Individualism and Venture Capital : A Cross-Country Study

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    We investigate the effect of individualism—a dimension of culture that is strongly associated with entrepreneurship—on venture-capital investments using a large cross-country sample. Our sample consists of 1496 country-year observations and includes 88 countries from 1998 to 2014. Controlling for economic conditions, the legal environment, and different aspects of culture, we find that individualism is positively and significantly related to venture-capital investments and explains 30% of cross-country variation. This result is stable across different subsamples, several measures of venture-capital investments, and even holds when using the political system 200 years ago as an instrument for individualism. The quality of formal institutions (rule of law) and entrepreneurial attitudes (uncertainty avoidance) partially mediate the effect of individualism on venture-capital investments, while economic conditions (GDP per capita) moderate this effect.

  • Ursprung, Heinrich (2019): Endogenous maternity allowances as exemplified by academic promotion standards Labour Economics. Elsevier. 2019, 60, pp. 1-11. ISSN 0927-5371. eISSN 1879-1034. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.labeco.2019.04.011

    Endogenous maternity allowances as exemplified by academic promotion standards

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    I model the strategic interaction between scientists aiming for promotion and a research institution that seeks a highly productive faculty by setting a maternity allowance in the form of a minimum promotion standard. The model shows that maternity allowances need not derive from moral justice arguments but can emerge endogenously from efficiency considerations. The underlying mechanism rests on the assumption that exceptionally productive female professionals are also exceptionally productive if they choose to become mothers. Even though motherhood temporarily handicaps their productivity, it is exactly this cost of motherhood that signals the mothers’ intrinsic high productivity. I explicitly refer to the academic labor market and use empirical evidence from academia to justify the model's specification, but the conclusions carry over to promotion decisions at the executive level in most professional lines of occupation.

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