Publications

We propose how to bid in first-price auctions when a bidder knows the own value but not how others will bid. To do this, we introduce a methodology to show how to make choices in strategic settings without assuming common knowledge or equilibrium behavior. Accordingly, we first eliminate environments that are believed not to occur and then find a robust rule that performs well in the remaining environments. We test our bids using data from laboratory experiments and the field and find that our bids outperform those made by real bidders.

Anonymous and unannounced worksite inspections known as ``Mystery Shopping'' (MS) are common in multi-site service firms, but little is known about the strategic importance of this practice. We conceptualize MS as a monitoring tool firms use to implement the optimal allocation of site resources between sales- and service-related activities in the presence of cross-site reputation spillovers, which is to maximize sales while maintaining service standards. Consistent with this view, data from three retail chains reveal (i) low variation in MS scores, (ii) little correlation of MS scores with sales, and iii) high correlation of sites' MS scores with the likelihood of their supervisors receiving incentive bonuses. Our findings are robust to different model specifications, and shed new light on a ubiquitous yet little-studied management practice.

Der Fokus der vorliegenden Untersuchung liegt auf der Weiterbildungsberatung, insbesondere auf dem Beratungswissen des Weiterbildungspersonals mit seinen verschiedenen Dimensionen. Um eine Eingrenzung zu erreichen, ist die Beratung als professionelle pädagogische Handlungsform Ausgangslage der Untersuchung. Auf Basis eines systematischen Literaturreviews werden Instrumente zur Erfassung von Beratungskompetenzen in Bildung, Beruf und Beschäftigung und in der sozialen Arbeit analysiert. Dabei untersuchen wir, inwiefern Beratungswissen in den Instrumenten konzeptualisiert und operationalisiert wird und ob diese für den Einsatz in der Weiterbildung geeignet sind. Hinsichtlich des Weiterbildungskontexts sind drei Instrumente prinzipiell einschlägig. Es zeigt sich aber, dass Wissen selten explizit erfasst wird. Forschungsdesiderate hinsichtlich der Operationalisierung des Beratungswissens von Weiterbildungspersonal werden diskutiert.

Welche Schwerpunkte setzen Lehrende abhängig vom Weiterbildungsinhalt bei der Stützung transferförderlicher Maßnahmen? Um dies zu ermitteln, wurden in der vorliegenden Studie Lehrende aus der berufsbezogenen Weiterbildung ( N  = 418) mittels einer Online-Erhebung zu ihrem transferförderlichen Vorgehen befragt. Eine einfaktorielle MANOVA ergab für sämtliche Maßnahmenbereiche einen signifikanten Unterschied zwischen Soft Skills und Hard Skills Inhalten mit einer kleinen Effektstärke. Erwartungsgemäß wurde bei Soft Skills Weiterbildungen in sechs der sieben Bereiche Transfer signifikant stärker gestützt, wobei die Unterschiede am deutlichsten ausfielen für die Bereiche „Modellernen, Feedback und Reflexion“ sowie für „Transferzielplanung durch die Teilnehmenden“. Dagegen zeigte sich, dass bei Hard Skills Inhalten eher auf eine realitätsnahe Weiterbildungsumgebung geachtet wird, um einen nahen Transfer zu begünstigen. Zusätzliche Analysen ergaben, dass die vorgefundenen Unterschiede nicht durch die Qualifikation der Lehrenden in Form einer Trainerausbildung erklärbar sind. Insgesamt deuten die Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass eine konsequentere domänenspezifische Ausdifferenzierung in der Weiterbildungsforschung zielführend wäre. Zudem könnte eine Thematisierung der vorgefundenen domänenspezifischen Unterschiede in zukünftigen Fort- und Weiterbildungen für die Professionalisierung von Lehrenden sinnvoll sein.

I study auctions in which firms bid for licenses that reduce their marginal costs in a post-auction downstream market. When there are three or more firms, I show that the Vickrey–Clarke–Groves (VCG) auction maximizes consumer surplus in dominant strategies if and only if it maximizes producer surplus in dominant strategies. With two firms, the effect on consumer surplus is ambiguous. When the VCG auction does not maximize consumer surplus, I show that consumer surplus can be maximized by adding caps, i.e., restricting the number of licenses a bidder can win. This might lower producer surplus.

Do trade unions benefit from economic crises by attracting new members among workers concerned about job security? To address this question, we provide a comprehensive empirical investigation based on panel data from Germany, where workers decide individually on their membership. We analyse whether exogenously manipulated perceptions of job insecurity encourage individuals to join a trade union. Firm-level workforce reductions serve as the first trigger of perceived job insecurity. Regional unemployment rates represent a second source of exogenous variation. Third, we propose a novel identification approach based on plant-closure-induced job losses of other workers in the same region. In each case, we exploit the longitudinal nature of the data to analyse the implications of changes in labour market conditions for changes in union membership using an instrumental variable approach. We find consistently that perceived job insecurity, as triggered by labour market turmoil, increases the likelihood of individual union membership. Analysing data on media coverage about downsizing in a complementary investigation, we add further evidence to the notion of trade unions as beneficiaries of labour market crises. Finally, we consider workers who lose their jobs and find no evidence of adverse effects on union membership among those affected directly by unemployment.

In this paper we provide a general two-step framework for linear projection estimators of impulse responses in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs). This framework is particularly useful for situations when structural shocks are identified from information outside the VAR (e.g. narrative shocks). We provide asymptotic results for statistical inference and discuss situations when standard inference is valid without adjustment for generated regressors, autocorrelated errors or non-stationary variables. We illustrate how various popular SVAR models fit into our framework. Furthermore, we provide a local projection framework for invertible SVAR models that are estimated by instrumental variables (IV). This class of models results in a set of quadratic moment conditions used to obtain the asymptotic distribution of the estimator. Moreover, we analyse generalized least squares (GLS) versions of the projections to improve the efficiency of the projection estimators. We also compare the finite sample properties of various estimators in simulations. Two highlights of the Monte Carlo results are (i) for invertible VARs our two-step IV projection estimator is more efficient compared to existing projection estimators and (ii) using the GLS projection variant with residual augmentation leads to substantial efficiency gains relative to standard OLS/IV projection estimators.

The vocational identity of trainees is one component of their professional competence and is considered to be a central goal of vocational education and training (VET) programs. From the numerous identity constructs and conceptualizations, this study focuses on the organizational identification of trainees, that is, the extent to which trainees internalize the values and goals of their training company and perceive themselves as part of this company. We are specifically interested in the development, predictors, and effects of trainees’ organizational identification, as well as the interrelations between organizational identification and social integration. We use longitudinal data of n  = 250 trainees in dual VET programs in Germany at the very beginning of their VET program (t1), after 3 months (t2), and after 9 months (t3). A structural equation model was used to analyze the development, predictors, and effects of organizational identification for the first 9 months of training and the cross-lagged effects between organizational identification and social integration. The results showed a high stability of trainees’ organizational identification over the first 9 months. Regarding the predictors, the results indicated positive direct and indirect effects of the formal socialization tactics implemented by the training company, as well as of support by the trainer at the beginning of the training. However, collegial support at the beginning of the training did not seem to play a significant role in organizational identification. Moreover, organizational identification positively affected trainees’ emotional engagement and self-perceived competence while negatively predicting dropout intentions after 9 months of training. Finally, the cross-lagged effects between organizational identification and social integration were not significant, and only at t3 were these constructs positively correlated. However, regarding the development, predictors, and effects, very similar results were found for organizational identification and social integration. The results underline the positive significance of organizational identification for the individual, the company, and society, even at this early stage of training. The results are discussed regarding both their scientific and practical implications.

Using new data from a three-wave panel survey administered in Germany between May 2020 and May 2021, this paper studies the impact of a negative shock affecting all strata of the population, such as the development of COVID-19, on preferences for redistribution. Exploiting the plausibly exogenous change in the severity of the infection rate at the county level, we show that, contrary to some theoretical expectations, the worse the crisis, the less our respondents expressed support for redistribution. We provide further evidence that this is not driven by a decrease in inequality aversion but might be driven by the individuals’ level of trust.

Organizational decisions are often made by groups rather than individuals. Depending on the group composition, each member's characteristics—like gender and motivated beliefs—can influence the final group investment decision. To capture this, we design two types of investment situations in a randomized controlled laboratory experiment—one with fixed chances of success and one with performance-dependent chances of success. This novel design entails the perceived ability to “beat the odds” of the investment and thus models real-life investment situations more accurately than standard lottery choice. Our results demonstrate the benefits of mixed group composition in terms of both gender and overconfidence: Groups with all men and/or all overconfident group members consistently overinvest when a possibility to “beat the odds” is present, but not in standard situations. We explore several channels for our results and find that (i) individual probability perception, (ii) leader responsibility allocation and (iii) spillover effects from priming show significant effects.

Employee referral programs (ERPs) are randomly introduced in a grocery chain. On direct effects, larger referral bonuses increase referral quantity but decrease quality, though the increase in referrals from ERPs is modest. However, the overall effect of having an ERP is substantial, reducing attrition by 15% and significantly decreasing labor costs. This occurs, partly, because referrals stay longer than nonreferrals, but, mainly, from indirect effects: nonreferrals stay longer in treated than in control stores. The most supported mechanism for these indirect effects is workers value being involved in hiring. Attrition impacts are larger in higher performing stores and better local labor markets.

Do principals' distributive preferences affect the allocation of incentives within firms? We run a Principal-Agent lab experiment, framed as a firm setting. In the experiment, subjects are randomized in the principal or worker position. Principals must choose piece rate wage contracts for two workers that differ in terms of ability. Workers have to choose an effort level that is non-contractible. Principals are either paid in proportion to the output produced (Stakeholder treatment) or paid a fixed wage (Spectator treatment). We study how principals make trade-offs between incentive concerns (motivating workers to maximize output) and their own normative distributive preferences. We find that, despite the firm-frame and the moral hazard situation, principals do hold egalitarian concerns, as principals are on average willing to trade off their firm's performance (and so their own income) for more wage equality among their workers. The willingness to reduce inequality among workers is sensitive to both extensive and intensive margin incentives, which shows that principals' choices are shaped by incentives that they face themselves.

Policy reforms are often multifaceted. In the rent-seeking literature policies are usually taken as one-dimensional. This paper models policy formation using a political contest with endogenous policy proposals containing two dimensions, e.g. access and quality of education. The two dimensions provide an opportunity to trade off one policy over another to make the lobbying opposition less aggressive. In a first stage, the government proposes a reform over the two policies, and in a second stage engages in a contest with an interest group over the enactment of the proposed reform. As a result, the government makes a compromise, under-proposing in the policy the interest group opposes and over-proposing in the policy the interest group desires. Effectively, there will be strategic bundling of desired policies with undesired ones in an attempt to increase enactment probability and overall utility. We study this prediction empirically using a newly complied dataset on education legislation in the states of California, Illinois and Texas. Results suggest that stronger opposition is associated with less quality reforms. Moreover, as predicted by the model, when bundling access reforms together with quality, the negative effect is counteracted.

We provide evidence that higher wealth inequality between households is associated with stronger real effects of monetary policy. First, we use state-dependent local projections to show that the US and the UK exhibited stronger real effects of monetary policy in times of higher wealth inequality. Second, we measure wealth inequality within US states and document that economic activity responds more strongly to interest rate changes in states where wealth is distributed more unequally. Third, we show that ECB monetary policy has stronger real effects in Euro Area countries with higher wealth inequality.

Past research has shown that CEOs become overconfident through biased self-attribution in previous M&A transactions, which negatively affects subsequent M&A deals. However, M&A decisions are de jure and de facto not only influenced by a single person, the CEO, but by a group of individuals, namely the board of directors. In this study, we investigate whether and to what extent the overconfidence of board directors affects key acquisition outcomes. Building on the overconfidence literature, we argue that board directors become overconfident through biased self-attribution in recent M&A deals and hypothesize that their overconfidence leads to poorer subsequent M&A outcomes. By studying investor reactions and premiums paid for a broad set of public acquisitions carried out by large U.S. companies, we find strong support for our predictions.

Recently, there has been a growing concern with the (non-)replicability of scientific findings. Many reasons for the ‘replication crisis’ have been brought forward, including uncorrected multiple-hypotheses testing, ex-post theorising, p-hacking, publication bias, and under-powered studies (see, for example, the excellent discussion in Renkewitz & Keiner, 2019). Four years ago, Experimental Economics called for proposals to be reviewed before collecting data. The aim was to gain experience with this new form of organising the research process that has been gaining popularity in many other disciplines over the past decade.