Latest Publications
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(2014): Marry Your Like : Assortative Mating and Income Inequality American Economic Review. 2014, 104(5), pp. 348-353. ISSN 0002-8282. eISSN 1944-7981. Available under: doi: 10.1257/aer.104.5.348
Has there been an increase in positive assortative mating? Does assortative mating contribute to household income inequality? Data from the United States Census Bureau suggests there has been a rise in assortative mating. Additionally, assortative mating affects household income inequality. In particular, if matching in 2005 between husbands and wives had been random, instead of the pattern observed in the data, then the Gini coefficient would have fallen from the observed 0.43 to 0.34, so that income inequality would be smaller. Thus, assortative mating is important for income inequality. The high level of married female labor-force participation in 2005 is important for this result.
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(2014): TVET System Research ZHAO, Zhiqun, ed.. Areas of vocational education research. Heidelberg: Springer, 2014, pp. 91-108. ISBN 978-3-642-54223-7. Available under: doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-54224-4_5
Research on TVET systems now comes up with various theoretical approaches. Apart from methodological issues, such as ‘typologies’, comparative criteria are crucial theoretical components by which existing TVET systems can be analysed. It is against this background—and not just by looking at the institutional and/or organisational pattern typical of a given TVET system—that underlying factors, such as the evaluation given to TVET, the different cultural imprints, the meaning of TVET and the political attention states dedicate to the field of post-compulsory education in general, should be taken into account. Differences between the German-speaking countries and the Anglo-Saxon world are hereby obvious and a good example for depicting cultural and pedagogical diversity in the field of TVET. The article focusses on various methodological perspectives for the purpose of understanding, among others, these differences.
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Im Rahmen dieser Untersuchung wurde der Zusammenhang zwischen gymnasialen Noten und unterschiedlichen Zielvariablen des Berufserfolges untersucht. Noten weisen insbesondere in den verfügbaren Metaanalysen des angloamerikanischen Raumes einen statistisch signifikanten, jedoch nicht als hoch einzustufenden Zusammenhang mit dem Berufserfolg auf. Für den deutschen Sprachraum blieb diese Fragestellung weitgehend unbeantwortet. Anhand des um-fangreichen Datenmaterials des Kölner Gymnasiastenpanels (KGP), einer als hochselektiv zu taxierenden Stichprobe von ehemaligen Gymnasiasten, wurden die Noten des 10. Schuljahres (1969) bezüglich ihrer prognostischen Validität für den Berufserfolg operationalisiert in Form des Berufsprestiges, des Einkommens und der Arbeitszufriedenheit mit 30, 43 und 56 Lebens-jahren analysiert. Dabei konnte festgestellt werden, dass die Note ein guter Prädiktor für das Berufsprestige, nicht aber so sehr für das Einkommen darstellt. Im Gegensatz zur Intelligenz, welche einen komparativen Vorteil bei der Prädiktion des Einkommens aufweist. Die Arbeits-zufriedenheit scheint eine eigene Dimension darzustellen, welche mit zunehmendem Berufs-prestige eher abzunehmen scheint.
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(2014): Ökonometrische Methoden zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte der Wirtschaftspolitik Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik. 2014, 15(2), pp. 105-132. ISSN 1465-6493. eISSN 1468-2516. Available under: doi: 10.1515/pwp-2014-0013
Die Öffentlichkeit hat ein Interesse zu wissen, ob politische Maßnahmen die mit ihnen verfolgten Ziele wirksam und wirtschaftlich erreichen. In empirischen Studien, die als Grundlage für evidenzbasierte Wirtschaftspolitik dienen können, werden häufig komplexe Methoden verwendet, um tatsächliche kausale Wirkungen von anderweitig verursachten Zusammenhängen zu unterscheiden. Der vorliegende Beitrag gibt einen nicht-technischen Überblick über Intuition und Anwendungsbeispiele des modernen wissenschaftlichen Instrumentariums zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte. Die betrachteten ökonometrischen Methoden umfassen kontrolliert randomisierte Experimente, die Zufallsvergabe überzeichneter Programme, den Instrumentvariablen-Ansatz, den Regressions-Diskontinuitäten-Ansatz, den Differenz-von-Differenzen-Ansatz sowie Panelmethoden mit fixen Effekten. Diese experimentellen und quasi-experimentellen Designs sollen der Wirtschaftspolitik helfen zu lernen, was funktioniert.
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Kathrin Breuing untersucht im Rahmen einer empirischen Studie die Auswirkungen der 2008 in NRW eingeführten freien Schulwahl im dualen System. Ausgehend von einem interdisziplinär entwickelten Modell zur freien Berufsschulwahl rekonstruiert die Autorin den Gesetzgebungsprozess zu der bundesweit bislang einmaligen Bildungsreform und eruiert im Rahmen einer Interview- und Fragebogenstudie die Einschätzungen von Berufsbildungsexperten sowie das Reaktionsverhalten von Ausbildungsbetrieben und Berufsschulen. Im Mittelpunkt der Untersuchung steht die Frage, welche Chancen und Risiken von einer durch unternehmerische (statt durch elterliche) Interessen beeinflussten Schulwahlkonstellation ausgehen und welche Spannungsfelder sich angesichts der durch die Öffnung der Schulbezirke forcierten Wettbewerbsorientierung im dualen System eröffnen. Das Design der Untersuchung folgt einem mehrperspektivischen Ansatz und verknüpft qualitative und quantitative Forschungsmethoden.
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We present a model in which a motivator can take costly actions - or what we call motivational effort - in order to reduce the effort costs of a worker, and analyze the optimal combination of motivational effort and monetary incentives. We distinguish two cases. First, the firm owner chooses the intensity of motivation and bears the motivational costs. Second, another agent of the firm chooses the motivational actions and incurs the associated costs. In the latter case, the firm must not only incentivize the worker to work hard, but also the motivator to motivate the worker. We characterize and discuss the conditions under which monetary incentives and motivational effort are substitutes or complements, and show that motivational effort may exceed the efficient level.
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(2014): Social Health Insurance : Theory and Evidence CULYER, Anthony J., ed.. Encyclopedia of Health Economics : [Ph - Z, index]; Vol.3. Amsterdam [u.a.]: Elsevier, 2014, pp. 324-328. ISBN 978-0-12-375678-7. Available under: doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-375678-7.00907-X
In many Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, there is social health insurance (SHI), characterized by mandatory membership, community rating, and open enrollment. The normative theory of SHI asks for the efficiency and equity reasons for introducing and maintaining such a compulsory institution in a market economy, for the optimal design of these systems, and for the regulation necessary to attain competition in this market. The positive branch tries to explain why SHI exists in most democracies and why certain characteristic features are often observed.
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(2014): Zentrale Abschlussprüfungen, Signalwirkung von Abiturnoten und Arbeitsmarkterfolg in Deutschland Zeitschrift für Erziehungswissenschaft. 2014, 17(1), pp. 35-60. ISSN 1434-663X. eISSN 1862-5215. Available under: doi: 10.1007/s11618-014-0487-4
Zahlreiche Studien belegen einen positiven Zusammenhang zwischen zentralen Abschlussprüfungen und Schülerleistungen, aber über längerfristige Effekte zentraler Abschlussprüfungen auf den späteren Arbeitsmarkterfolg ist wenig bekannt. Diese Studie nutzt die Variation in Abschlussprüfungen nach Bundesland und Sekundarschulabschluss, um langfristige Effekte von zentralen Abschlussprüfungen auf das Arbeitseinkommen und die Arbeitslosigkeitswahrscheinlichkeit zu untersuchen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass zentrale Abschlussprüfungen bei Hauptschulabsolventen mit höheren Arbeitseinkommen sowie bei Hauptschulabsolventen und Abiturienten mit geringerem Arbeitslosigkeitsrisiko einhergehen. Darüber hinaus haben Abiturnoten aus zentralen Prüfungen einen stärkeren Zusammenhang mit den Einkommen am Arbeitsmarkt, was die Anreize für Schüler in diesen Bundesländern erhöht, sich in der Schule besonders anzustrengen. Zusammengenommen liefert der Beitrag erste Evidenz dafür, dass zentrale Abschlussprüfungen durchaus auch langfristige Effekte auf dem Arbeitsmarkt haben können.
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(2014): After-School Center-Based Care and Children's Development The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy. De Gruyter. 2014, 14(4), pp. 1299-1336. ISSN 2194-6108. eISSN 1935-1682. Available under: doi: 10.1515/bejeap-2013-0131
What is the impact of after-school center-based care on the development of primary school-aged children? Answering this question is challenging due to non-random selection of children into after-school center-based care. We tackle this challenge using detailed data of the German Child Panel and employing a value-added method. While we do not find significant effects on average, our analysis provides evidence for beneficial returns to after-school center-based care attendance for more disadvantaged children. To be more precise, children of less educated mothers and low-income families benefit from attending after-school care centers in terms of their socio-behavioral development.
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(2014): Reciprocity and resistance to comprehensive reform Public Choice. 2014, 160(3-4), pp. 411-428. ISSN 0048-5829. eISSN 1573-7101. Available under: doi: 10.1007/s11127-013-0097-3
Comprehensive reforms often fail, despite being beneficial to society. Politicians may block comprehensive reforms in an attempt to form vote trading coalitions in which they benefit from a piecemeal reform at the expense of others. Because formal commitment devices for vote trading are frequently missing, trust and reciprocity among legislators can play an important role for vote trading. We investigate in a laboratory experiment whether legislators will impede comprehensive reforms in an attempt to form vote trading coalitions even if formal commitment devices for vote trading after reform failure are missing. We find that open ballots allow for vote trading without commitment, based on trust and reciprocity. In turn, legislators frequently reject efficient comprehensive reforms in such institutions.
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(2014): Luxembourg : Has inequality grown enough to matter? NOLAN, Brian, ed. and others. Changing Inequalities and Societal Impacts in Rich Countries : Thirty Countries' Experiences. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014, pp. 437-458. ISBN 978-0-19-968742-8. Available under: doi: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199687428.003.0019
Luxembourg experienced remarkable economic performance and employment growth since the middle of the 1980s. Based on the development of the financial sector, this growth benefited massively from the contribution of immigrants and cross-border workers to the labour force. High economic growth led to a rapid improvement in the overall living standard of the resident population. During the same period, income inequality increased too, albeit modestly. Even if the country can still be considered a low inequality country by international standards, this trend is a potential source of concern. This chapter analyses the factors that explain the rise in income inequality between 1985 and 2010 and provides a descriptive account of whether this trend has been correlated with a set of social, cultural, and political outcomes. By and large, the positive impact of the improvement of overall living standards seems to have prevailed over the potential detrimental effects of increasing inequality.
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(2014): Liquidity and the Value at Risk Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik. 2014, 234(5), pp. 572-602. ISSN 0021-4027. Available under: doi: 10.1515/jbnst-2014-0502
We introduce an intuitive method of enhancing low-frequency volatility measures used to compute Value-at-Risk (VaR) by incorporating intradaily liquidity information from the limit order book. Using the quote slope of Hasbrouck and Seppi (2001), a compound liquidity measure comprising the dimensions of bid-ask spread and log depths, as a proxy for latent liquidity, we assign states of liquidity that the asset instantaneously resides in to allow only extremal liquidity shocks to influence volatility. To forecast the liquidity states, we use the autoregressive conditional multinomial model of Liesenfeld et al. (2006). We test the method on a number of stocks and find that (1) for stocks in financial and technological sectors, only the extremal shocks to liquidity affect volatility significantly and such a liquidity-state adjusted volatility is likely to improve VaR forecasts; (2) the volatility of stock returns in most other sectors are less affected by extremal shocks to liquidity but the continuous liquidity proxy is able to explain some of the dynamics of volatility and (3) the inclusion of liquidity in VaR becomes increasingly important as the quantile under consideration becomes more extreme.
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The value of land in the balance sheet of French firms correlates positively with their hiring and investment flows. To explore the relationship between these variables, we develop a macroeconomic model with firms that are subject to both credit and labor market frictions. The value of collateral is driven by the forward-looking dynamics of the land price, which reacts endogenously to fundamental and non-fundamental (sunspot) shocks. We calibrate the model to French data and find that land price shocks give rise to significant amplification and hump-shaped responses of investment, vacancies and unemployment that are in line with the data.
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(2014): Do High Stakes and Competition Undermine Fair Behaviour? : Evidence from Russia Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 2014, 108, pp. 354-363. ISSN 0167-2681. eISSN 1879-1751. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.jebo.2013.09.005
This paper reports the results of a series of competitive labour market experiments in which subjects have the possibility to reciprocate favours. In the high stake condition subjects earned between two and three times their monthly income during the experiment. In the normal stake condition the stake level was reduced by a factor of ten. We observe that both in the high and the normal stake condition fairness concerns are strong enough to outweigh competitive forces and give rise to non-competitive wages. There is also no evidence that effort behaviour becomes generally more selfish at higher stake levels. Therefore, our results suggest that fairness concerns may play an important role even at relatively high stake levels.
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We analyze a dynamic moral-hazard model to derive optimal sales force compensation plans without imposing any ad hoc restrictions on the class of feasible incentive contracts. We explain when the compensation plans that are most common in practice - fixed salaries, quota-based bonuses, commissions, or a combination thereof - are optimal. Fixed salaries are optimal for small revenue-cost ratios. Quota-based bonuses (commissions) should be used if the revenue-cost ratio takes intermediate (large) values. If firms face demand uncertainty, markets are rather thin, and the revenue-cost ratio large, firms should combine a commission with a quota-based bonus. If word-of-mouth advertising affects sales, a dynamic commission that increases over time can be optimal. When entering a new market or launching a new product, firms should install long-term bonus plans.
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The U.S. minimum wage declined in real terms since the late 1970s. In the same time, the wage of the least skilled workers fell in real terms, while the wage of the highest skilled workers increased. To shed light on these issues, I use a simple model of routinization. High-ability workers, after having received additional education, can substitute low-ability co-workers by machines. Technical progress results in more high-ability workers receiving additional education and in a declining wage for low-ability workers. A government opposes both unemployment and wage inequality. I calibrate the model and show that technical progress induces the government to lower the minimum wage. Hence, the model contributes to understand the decline in the U.S. minimum wage.
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We investigate non-linearities in the stock return - trading volume relationship by using daily data for 16 European countries in an asymmetric vector autoregressive model. In this framework, we test for asymmetries and analyze the dynamic relationship using a simulation based procedure for computing asymmetric impulse response functions. We find that stock returns have a significant influence on trading volume, but there is no evidence for the influence of trading volume on returns. Our analysis indicates that responses of trading volume to return shocks are non-linear and the sign of the response depends on the absolute size of the shock. Thus, using linear VAR models may lead to wrong conclusions concerning the return - volume relationship. We also find that after stock markets go up (down), investors trade significantly more (less) in small and mid cap stocks, supporting evidence for the theories of overconfidence, market participation, differences of opinion, and disposition effect.
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(2013): The role of interviewer encounters in panel responses on life satisfaction Economics Letters. 2013, 121(3), pp. 550-554. ISSN 0165-1765. eISSN 1873-7374. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.10.024
This note examines a common explanation why participants of panel surveys may report declining life satisfaction over time. In line with the argument of developing trust relationships between interviewers and interviewees, the analysis reveals positive effects in reported life satisfaction when the person conducting the interview changes to an unfamiliar individual. Yet, the evidence also shows that the overall decline is determined by years in the panel, rather than by number of encounters with one specific interviewer.