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  • Labour market frictions, monetary policy and durable goods

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    The standard two-sector monetary business cycle model suffers from an important deficiency. Since durable good prices are more flexible than non-durable good prices, optimising households build up the stock of durable goods at low cost after a monetary contraction. Consequently, sectoral outputs move in opposite directions. This paper finds that labour market frictions help to understand the so-called sectoral “comovement puzzle”. Our benchmark model with staggered Right-to-Manage wage bargaining closely matches the empirical elasticities of output, employment and hours per worker across sectors. The model with Nash bargaining, in contrast, predicts that firms adjust employment exclusively along the extensive margin.

  • Jackwerth, Jens; Rubinstein, Mark (2012): Recovering Stochastic Processes from Option Prices BATTEN, Jonathan A., ed., Niklas WAGNER, ed.. Derivative Securities Pricing and Modelling. Bradford: Emerald, 2012, pp. 123-154. Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis. 94. ISBN 978-1-78052-616-4. Available under: doi: 10.1108/S1569-3759(2012)0000094008

    Recovering Stochastic Processes from Option Prices

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    How do stock prices evolve over time? The standard assumption of geometric Brownian motion, questionable as it has been right along, is even more doubtful in light of the stock market crash of 1987 and the subsequent prices of U.S. index options. With the development of rich and deep markets in these options, it is now possible to use options prices to make inferences about the risk-neutral stochastic process governing the underlying index. We compare the ability of models including Black-Scholes, naïve volatility smile predictions of traders, constant elasticity of variance, displaced diffusion, jump diffusion, stochastic volatility, and implied binomial trees to explain otherwise identical observed option prices that differ by strike prices, times-toexpiration, or times. The latter amounts to examining predictions of future implied volatilities.

    Certain naïve predictive models used by traders seem to perform best, although some academic models are not far behind. We find that the better performing models all incorporate the negative correlation between index level and volatility. Further improvements to the models seem to require predicting the future at-the-money implied volatility. However, an “efficient markets result” makes these forecasts difficult, and improvements to the option pricing models might then be limited.

  • Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker; Imhof, Stephan (2012): Tax Rules Social Choice and Welfare. 2012, 41(1), pp. 19-42. ISSN 0176-1714. eISSN 1432-217X. Available under: doi: 10.1007/s00355-012-0675-1

    Tax Rules

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    Tax schemes are more restricted by constitutional rules than subsidies. We introduce a model of public good provision with incentive problems in agenda-setting and identify several advantages of restrictions on tax schemes. In particular, tax rules may prevent the proposal and adoption of inefficient projects that benefit only a small minority. We also propose “redistribution efficiency” as a socially desirable property of proposals and find that tax rules guarantee this kind of efficiency. Moreover, a constitution that requires certain restrictions on both taxes and subsidies satisfies a criterion we label “robustness against counter-proposals.” We provide an axiomatic characterization of this constitution. Finally, we perform utilitarian welfare comparisons.

  • Optimal Damages Multipliers in Oligopolistic Markets

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    This paper establishes that tort damages multipliers higher than one can be an instrument to induce imperfectly competitive producers to invest in product safety at socially optimal levels. In their selection of product safety levels, producers seek to maximize profits, neglecting the fact that higher investment in product safety increases consumer welfare; the discrepancy between private and social safety incentives can be remedied by setting damages multipliers to values greater than one. We show that the optimal damages multiplier depends on the characteristics of competition, such as the number of firms, the degree of substitutability / complementarity when products are heterogeneous, firms' cost structures, and the mode of competition.

  • Age and Complementarity in Scientific Collaboration

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    I model research quality as the outcome of a CES production technology that uses human capital measured by publication records as inputs. Investigating a sample of scientific publications with two co-authors I show that the CES-complementarity parameter is a function of the age difference of the authors. Complementarity is maximized if the age difference between the authors is about 10 years. Two theories are presented which may explain my findings. According to these models, older and younger researchers differ not only in their skill levels but also in the types of their skills and their interpersonal relationships.

  • Goldlücke, Susanne; Kranz, Sebastian (2012): Infinitely repeated games with public monitoring and monetary transfers Journal of Economic Theory. 2012, 147(3), pp. 1191-1221. ISSN 0022-0531. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.jet.2012.01.008

    Infinitely repeated games with public monitoring and monetary transfers

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    This paper studies infinitely repeated games with imperfect public monitoring and the possibility of monetary transfers. It is shown that all public perfect equilibrium payoffs can be implemented with a simple class of stationary equilibria that use stick-and-carrot punishments. A fast algorithm is developed that exactly computes the set of pure strategies equilibrium payoffs for all discount factors.

  • Stoyanov, Andrey; Zubanov, Nick (2012): Productivity spillovers across firms through worker mobility American Economic Journal : Applied Economics. 2012, 4(2), pp. 168-198. ISSN 1945-7782. eISSN 1945-7790. Available under: doi: 10.1257/app.4.2.168

    Productivity spillovers across firms through worker mobility

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    Using matched firm-worker data from Danish manufacturing, we observe firm-to-firm worker movements and find that firms that hired workers from more productive firms experience productivity gains one year after the hiring. The productivity gains associated with hiring from more productive firms are equivalent to 0.35 percent per year for an average firm. Surviving a variety of statistical controls, these gains increase with education, tenure, and skill level of new hires, persist for several years after the hiring was done, and remain broadly similar for different industries and measures of productivity. Competing explanations for these gains, knowledge spillovers in particular, are discussed.

  • Lisop, Ingrid/ Huisinga, Richard: Die neue Stufe der Schulentwicklung : Wege kollegialer Erfolgssicherung

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  • Schwerdt, Guido; Messer, Dolores; Woessmann, Ludger; Wolter, Stefan C. (2012): The impact of an adult education voucher program : evidence from a randomized field experiment Journal of Public Economics. 2012, 96(7-8), pp. 569-583. ISSN 0047-2727. eISSN 1879-2316. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2012.03.001

    The impact of an adult education voucher program : evidence from a randomized field experiment

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    Lifelong learning is often promoted in aging societies, but little is known about its returns or governments' ability to advance it. This paper evaluates the effects of a large-scale randomized field experiment issuing vouchers for adult education in Switzerland. We find no significant average effects of the voucher program on earnings, employment, and subsequent education 1 year after treatment. But effects are heterogeneous: low-educated individuals are most likely to profit from adult education, but least likely to use the voucher. In addition, the public voucher program appears to crowd out firm-financed training. The findings cast doubt on the effectiveness of untargeted voucher programs in promoting labor market outcomes through adult education.

  • West, Martin; Schwerdt, Guido (2012): The Middle School Plunge : achievement tumbles when young students change schools Education Next. 2012, 12(2), pp. 62-68. ISSN 1532-5148. eISSN 1539-9672

    The Middle School Plunge : achievement tumbles when young students change schools

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    dc.contributor.author: West, Martin

  • Fischbacher, Urs; Gächter, Simon; Quercia, Simone (2012): The Behavioral Validity of the Strategy Method in Public Good Experiments Journal of Economic Psychology. 2012, 33(4), pp. 897-913. ISSN 0167-4870. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.joep.2012.04.002

    The Behavioral Validity of the Strategy Method in Public Good Experiments

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    We compare the strategy method and the direct response method in public good experiments in a within-subject design. This comparison is interesting because the strategy method is frequently used to investigate preference heterogeneity. We find that people identified by the strategy method as conditional cooperators also behave as conditional cooperators under the direct response method. Free-rider types contribute systematically less than all others. Overall, our results support the behavioral validity of the strategy method in public good experiments.

  • Empirical Determinants of In-kind Redistribution : Partisan Biases and the Role of Inflation

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    This paper investigates how government ideology and inflation affect the government’s choice between cash transfers and in-kind transfers. Our hypotheses are based on three observations: (i) in-kind transfers create stigma, (ii) but make recipients less vulnerable to inflation; (iii) poor benefit recipients make up the core constituency of left-wing parties. Using dynamic panel data estimations for 32 OECD countries over the time period from 1980 to 2007, we provide evidence that the in-kind share of social benefits is lower under left-wing governments. This partisan bias is weakened when left-wing governments respond to inflation by increasing the share of in-kind transfers.

  • Retaliation and the Role for Punishment in the Evolution of Cooperation

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    Models of evolutionary game theory have shown that punishment may be an adaptive behaviour in environments characterised by a social-dilemma situation. Experimental evidence closely corresponds to this nding but questions the cooperation-enhancing e ect of punishment if players are allowed to retaliate against their punishers. This study provides a theoretical explanation for the existence of retaliating behaviour in the context of repeated social dilemmas and analyses the role punishment can play in the evolution of cooperation under these conditions. We show a punishing strategy can pave the way for a partially-cooperative equilibrium of conditional cooperators and defecting types and, under positive mutation rates, foster the cooperation level in this equilibrium by prompting reluctant cooperators to cooperate. However, when rare mutations occur, it cannot sustain cooperation by itself as punishment costs favour the spread of non-punishing cooperators.

  • Inflation Forecast Contracts

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    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balance, paying central bankers according to their forecasting performance improves welfare. Optimal inflation forecast contracts stipulate high rewards for accurate forecasts.

  • Eisenkopf, Gerald; Wohlschlegel, Ansgar (2012): Regulation in the market for education and optimal choice of curriculum Journal of Urban Economics. Elsevier. 2012, 71(1), pp. 53-65. ISSN 0094-1190. eISSN 1095-9068. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.jue.2011.09.001

    Regulation in the market for education and optimal choice of curriculum

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    We analyze educational institutions’ incentives to set up demanding or lax curricula in duopolistic markets for education with endogenous enrolment of students. We assume that there is a positive externality from student achievement to the local economy. Comparing the case of regulated tuition fees with an unregulated market, we identify the following inefficiencies: Under regulated tuition fees schools will set up inefficiently lax curricula in an attempt to please low-quality students even if schools internalize some of the externality. On the other hand, unregulated schools set up excessively differentiated curricula in order to relax competition in tuition fees. Deregulation gets more attractive if a larger fraction of the externality is internalized.

  • Experimental studies on cooperation and coordination in politics, firms and society

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  • I would really love to participate in your survey! : Bias problems in the measurement of well-being

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    This paper argues that satisfaction data from surveys are biased by varying participant attitudes toward the interview itself. In this manner, interviewees in a German panel study report lower life satisfaction when there is evidence of transient influences like aversion. The empirical findings suggest that researchers of well-being should consider interview-specific factors in order to avoid drawing incorrect conclusions.

  • Baumann, Florian; Friehe, Tim (2012): On the Evasion of Employment Protection Legislation Labour Economics. 2012, 19(1), pp. 9-17. ISSN 0927-5371. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.labeco.2011.06.005

    On the Evasion of Employment Protection Legislation

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    This paper analyzes how the option to evade employment protection legislation impacts on unemployment. Using a stylized model, it is established that the level of unemployment is non-monotonous in the degree of strictness with which employment protection legislation is enforced. Considering just cause and social criteria requirements for three regulatory regimes representative of a large number of industrialized countries, we find that different regimes generate different dismissal decisions only if the regimes are strictly enforced. In contrast, unemployment rates may differ across regimes even in the case of weak enforcement. Additionally, we find that it may be worse for the economy to weakly enforce harmful regulations than to strictly enforce them.

  • Wolff, Irenaeus (2012): Retaliation and the role for punishment in the evolution of cooperation Journal of Theoretical Biology. 2012, 315, pp. 128-138. ISSN 0022-5193. eISSN 1095-8541. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.09.012

    Retaliation and the role for punishment in the evolution of cooperation

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    Models of evolutionary game theory have shown that punishment may be an adaptive behaviour in environments characterised by a social-dilemma situation. Experimental evidence closely corresponds to this finding but questions the cooperation-enhancing effect of punishment if players are allowed to retaliate against their punishers. This study provides a theoretical explanation for the existence of retaliating behaviour in the context of repeated social dilemmas and analyses the role punishment can play in the evolution of cooperation under these conditions. We show a punishing strategy can pave the way for a partially cooperative equilibrium of conditional cooperators and defecting types and, under positive mutation rates, foster the cooperation level in this equilibrium by prompting reluctant cooperators to cooperate. However, when rare mutations occur, it cannot sustain cooperation by itself as punishment costs favour the spread of non-punishing cooperators.

  • Forecasting Covariance Matrices : a Mixed Frequency Approach

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    In this paper we introduce a new method of forecasting covariance matrices of large dimensions by exploiting the theoretical and empirical potential of using mixed-frequency sampled data. The idea is to use high-frequency (intraday) data to model and forecast daily realized volatilities combined with low frequency (daily) data as input to the correlation model. The main theoretical contribution of the paper is to derive statistical and economic conditions, which ensure that a mixed-frequency forecast has a smaller mean squared forecast error than a similar pure low-frequency or pure high-frequency specification. The conditions are very general and do not rely on distributional assumptions of the forecasting errors or on a particular model specification. Moreover, we provide empirical evidence that, besides overcoming the computational burden of pure high-frequency specifications, the mixed-frequency forecasts are particularly useful in turbulent financial periods, such as the previous financial crisis and always outperforms the pure low-frequency specifications.

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